{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "bal-at-buf-2026-w8",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 2 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 1 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "BAL",
      "name": "Baltimore Ravens"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "BUF",
      "name": "Buffalo Bills"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Highmark Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 25.9,
    "home": 33.8
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:16.902600+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "BAL": {
        "qb": "Lamar Jackson",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Lamar Jackson is expected to return after full practice on Wednesday and Thursday following his ankle injury.",
        "material_availability": "Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith and Vega Ioane returned to limited work Thursday. Jaylinn Hawkins remained out of practice; John Simpson was limited.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:15.254935+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:16.404991+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/lamar-jackson-injury-practice-report-emotional-boost",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:15.437513+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/ravens-injury-report-vega-ioane-kyle-hamilton-roquan-smith-ravens-practice-return-2026",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:16.488931+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "BUF": {
        "qb": "Josh Allen",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Josh Allen remains the listed starter and is absent from the current injury report.",
        "material_availability": "Spencer Brown missed both practices. DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid and Bradley Chubb remained limited Thursday; Ed Oliver returned to full work.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:16.687326+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:16.902600+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Jackson's return meets Buffalo's running threat",
    "intro": "Baltimore expects its quarterback to return, but Buffalo has the more productive recent scoring record and a useful matchup on the ground.",
    "story": [
      "Baltimore has lost consecutive games to Cleveland and Cincinnati, scoring modestly in both. Buffalo comes off its bye with only one defeat. Jackson's expected return changes the feel of this contest, but the Ravens still need to get their running game and protection working together.",
      "Buffalo's clearest model advantages are inside runs and short-left passing. James Cook's workload makes the first of those especially relevant. Baltimore's Hamilton and Smith returning to practice helps the defensive outlook, although both remained limited Thursday.",
      "The Bills have their own concerns around Spencer Brown, DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid. Jackson's full practices are encouraging for Baltimore, while Flowers supplies an established receiving outlet. Sustaining drives would help the visitors avoid another game played from behind."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Jackson's final status and movement after the ankle injury. The current assessment expects his return.",
      "Buffalo's protection and receiving options, especially Brown, Moore and Kincaid.",
      "Baltimore's ability to contain Cook without losing its short-pass coverage."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Derrick Henry",
        "label": "Rushing volume",
        "note": "The main rushing workload gives Baltimore a way to support Jackson rather than ask him to carry the attack immediately.",
        "player_id": "00-0032764",
        "team": "BAL",
        "targets": 12,
        "team_targets": 198,
        "receptions": 10,
        "receiving_yards": 68,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 147,
        "rushing_yards": 579,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 8
      },
      {
        "name": "Zay Flowers",
        "label": "Receiving volume",
        "note": "Baltimore's leading target recipient is central to restoring a more productive passing game.",
        "player_id": "00-0039064",
        "team": "BAL",
        "targets": 53,
        "team_targets": 198,
        "receptions": 40,
        "receiving_yards": 608,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 3,
        "rushing_yards": 34,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "James Cook III",
        "label": "Inside-running opportunity",
        "note": "His established workload fits Buffalo's strongest model matchup: runs through the middle.",
        "player_id": "00-0037248",
        "team": "BUF",
        "targets": 14,
        "team_targets": 160,
        "receptions": 10,
        "receiving_yards": 89,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 117,
        "rushing_yards": 627,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 6
      },
      {
        "name": "Khalil Shakir",
        "label": "Short passing",
        "note": "An established target option, with Moore and Kincaid still limited in practice.",
        "player_id": "00-0037261",
        "team": "BUF",
        "targets": 32,
        "team_targets": 160,
        "receptions": 22,
        "receiving_yards": 280,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "BUF",
      "defense": "BAL",
      "label": "inside runs"
    },
    {
      "offense": "BUF",
      "defense": "BAL",
      "label": "short-left passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 7.9,
    "model_total": 59.7,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "BUF -3",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": -3.0,
      "book": "Unibet",
      "price": 1.89,
      "edge": 4.9,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 54.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 54.5,
      "book": "SportsBet",
      "price": 1.95,
      "edge": 5.2,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-10-30T13:27:12.728399+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w07-5fa3f8e09c72",
    "source_sha256": "5fa3f8e09c724b8476704f27acaa09ff89fc354ac760f7e860c7acf62ae8a8ed"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 12619,
    "ftn_games": 106,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-8-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-30T10:41:43.964426+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Lamar Jackson",
      "team": "BAL",
      "source_team": "BAL",
      "dropbacks": 338,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 229,
        "epa": 0.349
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 109,
        "epa": -0.671
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Josh Allen",
      "team": "BUF",
      "source_team": "BUF",
      "dropbacks": 506,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 379,
        "epa": 0.335
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 127,
        "epa": -0.518
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}