{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "buf-at-nyj-2026-w10",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-15T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 16 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 15 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "BUF",
      "name": "Buffalo Bills"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "NYJ",
      "name": "New York Jets"
    }
  },
  "venue": "MetLife Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 31.5,
    "home": 19.4
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.813068+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "BUF": {
        "qb": "Josh Allen",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Josh Allen remains the projected starter after the 23-6 win in Minnesota. ",
        "material_availability": "Joshua Palmer is on injured reserve. Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson missed Week 9; their Week 10 status still needs a fresh practice report. Buffalo acquired safety Amani Hooker from Tennessee.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:53.528327+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/news/there-s-no-panic-the-bills-stay-strong-through-early-struggles-and-injuries-in-mnf-win-over-the-minnesota-vikings",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:54.684082+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/news/s-geno-stone-and-wr-trent-sherfield-sr-elevated-wr-joshua-palmer-placed-on-injured-reserve-week-9",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:54.259783+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/news/titans-trade-safety-amani-hooker-and-a-fifth-round-pick-to-the-buffalo-bills-for-a-second-round-pick-in-the-2027-nfl-draft",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.813068+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "NYJ": {
        "qb": "Geno Smith",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Geno Smith remains the projected starter. ",
        "material_availability": "Breece Hall returned in Week 9 after his quad injury. Garrett Wilson missed that game in concussion protocol; the captured sources do not establish clearance for Buffalo.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:11.715643+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/film-breakdown-how-breece-hall-performed-in-his-return-11-10-2026",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:12.211934+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/jets-rb-breece-hall-happy-to-be-back-on-the-field-11-08-2026",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:13.095969+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Buffalo’s defence raises the Jets’ test",
    "intro": "Buffalo has allowed ten and six in its last two games. The Jets must do more than recover their running game to stay with a 7-1 opponent.",
    "story": [
      "Hall’s return gives New York another established runner alongside Braelon Allen, but the Jets scored only 12 in Kansas City after scoring 33 against Las Vegas. Buffalo’s 23-6 win in Minnesota showed it could win without a huge passing total and with replacements on the left side of its offensive line.",
      "Palmer’s move to injured reserve and the status of Dawkins and Anderson remain relevant to Buffalo’s protection and distribution. Wilson’s concussion status is equally important to New York. The model favours Buffalo, but its away-side direction remains an analysis lean under the existing rules. The total produces no formal selection."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Wilson’s clearance and the Bills’ offensive-line practice reports.",
      "New York keeping Hall and Allen involved if Buffalo takes the lead.",
      "Whether Buffalo’s newly acquired Hooker is active and how he is used."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "James Cook",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0037248",
        "team": "BUF",
        "targets": 18,
        "team_targets": 222,
        "receptions": 12,
        "receiving_yards": 110,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 169,
        "rushing_yards": 814,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 8
      },
      {
        "name": "Khalil Shakir",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0037261",
        "team": "BUF",
        "targets": 42,
        "team_targets": 222,
        "receptions": 31,
        "receiving_yards": 397,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 1
      },
      {
        "name": "Braelon Allen",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0039794",
        "team": "NYJ",
        "targets": 24,
        "team_targets": 258,
        "receptions": 19,
        "receiving_yards": 102,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 120,
        "rushing_yards": 598,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Garrett Wilson",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Historical season usage only. Wilson missed Week 9 in concussion protocol; Week 10 clearance has not been established. This is not a projected active role.",
        "player_id": "00-0037740",
        "team": "NYJ",
        "targets": 63,
        "team_targets": 258,
        "receptions": 43,
        "receiving_yards": 527,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "BUF",
      "defense": "NYJ",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "BUF",
      "defense": "NYJ",
      "label": "short-left passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -12.1,
    "model_total": 50.9,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "BUF -7.5",
      "direction": "away",
      "line": -7.5,
      "book": "SportsBet",
      "price": 1.89,
      "edge": 4.6,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 49.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 49.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.85,
      "edge": 1.4,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-11T14:21:05.660808+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w09-da49d4cd1481",
    "source_sha256": "da49d4cd14811cb623529f9361eb7306dff4c5cfee466776534212e21aeb204b"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 15984,
    "ftn_games": 136,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:10.326522+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Josh Allen",
      "team": "BUF",
      "source_team": "BUF",
      "dropbacks": 506,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 379,
        "epa": 0.335
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 127,
        "epa": -0.518
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Geno Smith",
      "team": "NYJ",
      "source_team": "LV",
      "dropbacks": 503,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 339,
        "epa": 0.256
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 164,
        "epa": -0.977
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}