{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "cle-at-pit-2026-w8",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 2 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 1 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "CLE",
      "name": "Cleveland Browns"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "PIT",
      "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Acrisure Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 21.8,
    "home": 25.5
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.615366+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "CLE": {
        "qb": "Deshaun Watson",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Deshaun Watson remains the listed starter and is absent from the current injury report.",
        "material_availability": "Tytus Howard remained out with a concussion Thursday. Elgton Jenkins and Jared Verse returned to limited work; Grant Delpit and Mason Graham remained limited.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:18.451228+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:18.553965+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/news/browns-announce-unofficial-depth-chart-for-week-8-vs-the-steelers",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:18.734373+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "PIT": {
        "qb": "Aaron Rodgers",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Aaron Rodgers remains the listed starter and is absent from the current injury report.",
        "material_availability": "Alex Highsmith remained limited Thursday. Brandin Echols and Doneiko Slaughter missed practice; Jalen Ramsey returned to full work.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.steelers.com/team/depth-chart/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:18.678960+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.steelers.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.615366+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.steelers.com/news/week-8-injury-report-browns-x7058",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:19.348336+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "The total offers more than the side in Pittsburgh",
    "intro": "The model sees a close division contest with more scoring than the quoted total implies.",
    "story": [
      "Cleveland won the first meeting 27-24, and both teams now have strong overall records. That result shows a route past the current 38.5 total, but it is not a forecast of the rematch. Cleveland's recent 13-10 win over Baltimore and Pittsburgh's 16-10 win over New Orleans also show how scoring can stall. The model expects a competitive game rather than a comfortable home win.",
      "Pittsburgh's leading positive area is short-middle passing, with inside runs also showing an advantage. Warren's involvement as both runner and receiver gives Rodgers ways to keep the offence moving. Cleveland's defensive practice limitations are relevant to that matchup, without establishing any current pressure-rate estimate.",
      "Howard's concussion absence and Jenkins' limited return are important for Cleveland's protection. Pittsburgh is watching Highsmith and its secondary depth, although Ramsey returned to full work. Those concerns sit alongside a model total above the market, while the spread difference is too small for a selection."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Cleveland's offensive-line availability, especially Howard and Jenkins.",
      "Pittsburgh's ability to sustain its short-middle passing and inside-running opportunities.",
      "Scoring efficiency. The Over needs drives to end in points rather than repeated empty possessions."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Quinshon Judkins",
        "label": "Rushing volume",
        "note": "His ground-game role matters with Howard out of practice and Jenkins working back on the offensive line.",
        "player_id": "00-0040784",
        "team": "CLE",
        "targets": 21,
        "team_targets": 207,
        "receptions": 19,
        "receiving_yards": 110,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 90,
        "rushing_yards": 317,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "KC Concepcion Jr.",
        "label": "Target volume",
        "note": "Cleveland's leading target recipient is one of Watson's established options in a close division matchup.",
        "player_id": "00-0041547",
        "team": "CLE",
        "targets": 45,
        "team_targets": 207,
        "receptions": 30,
        "receiving_yards": 315,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 9,
        "rushing_yards": 34,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 0
      },
      {
        "name": "Jaylen Warren",
        "label": "Two-way workload",
        "note": "His rushing production and receiving involvement offer Pittsburgh more than one way to sustain possessions.",
        "player_id": "00-0037228",
        "team": "PIT",
        "targets": 34,
        "team_targets": 246,
        "receptions": 24,
        "receiving_yards": 294,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 102,
        "rushing_yards": 561,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 2
      },
      {
        "name": "DK Metcalf",
        "label": "Target volume",
        "note": "The largest receiving workload for Pittsburgh remains with Metcalf.",
        "player_id": "00-0035640",
        "team": "PIT",
        "targets": 58,
        "team_targets": 246,
        "receptions": 32,
        "receiving_yards": 374,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 1,
        "rushing_yards": 11,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "PIT",
      "defense": "CLE",
      "label": "short-middle passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "PIT",
      "defense": "CLE",
      "label": "inside runs"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 3.7,
    "model_total": 47.4,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "CLE +4.5",
      "direction": "away",
      "line": 4.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 0.8,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 38.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 38.5,
      "book": "TAB",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 8.9,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-10-30T13:27:12.728399+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w07-5fa3f8e09c72",
    "source_sha256": "5fa3f8e09c724b8476704f27acaa09ff89fc354ac760f7e860c7acf62ae8a8ed"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 12619,
    "ftn_games": 106,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-8-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-30T10:41:43.964426+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Deshaun Watson",
      "team": "CLE",
      "source_team": null,
      "dropbacks": 0,
      "sufficient": false,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": null,
      "pressure": null
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Aaron Rodgers",
      "team": "PIT",
      "source_team": "PIT",
      "dropbacks": 526,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 415,
        "epa": 0.227
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 111,
        "epa": -0.71
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}