{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "dal-at-ind-2026-w9",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-08T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 9 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 8 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "DAL",
      "name": "Dallas Cowboys"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "IND",
      "name": "Indianapolis Colts"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Lucas Oil Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 27.4,
    "home": 26.9
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.716391+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "DAL": {
        "qb": "Dak Prescott",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Dak Prescott remains the listed starter.",
        "material_availability": "Jake Ferguson, KaVontae Turpin and Caleb Downs did not practise Wednesday. George Pickens and Tyler Smith were limited.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:07.501360+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:07.867310+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/mick-shots-just-executing-with-a-level-head",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.628337+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "IND": {
        "qb": "Daniel Jones",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Daniel Jones remains the starter after the 42-7 defeat in Jacksonville.",
        "material_availability": "Alec Pierce and Cam Taylor-Britt are on injured reserve. The full Week 9 practice picture still needs confirmation.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:10.894455+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/news/practice-notebook-justin-walley-drew-ogletree-among-colts-players-to-not-participate-in-wednesday-s-practice",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:11.492262+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/news/5-colts-things-daniel-jones-remains-starting-quarterback-shane-steichen-sees-execution-as-more-an-issue-than-effort-several-rookies-get-valuable-experience-in-week-8-loss-to-jaguars",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:11.322199+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/news/colts-sign-cb-kenneth-harris-to-53-man-roster-from-practice-squad-place-cb-cam-taylor-britt-on-injured-reserve-sign-2-players-to-practice-squad",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:10.808363+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/news/colts-sign-de-carl-lawson-to-practice-squad-release-te-kenny-fletcher-jr-from-practice-squad",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:11.220768+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "The Colts’ handicap comes with a credibility test",
    "intro": "Indianapolis receives six points at home. Its recent scoring makes the model’s support difficult to endorse without qualification.",
    "story": [
      "Dallas has scored 38 and 30 in its last two, while Indianapolis has managed 20, 10 and seven across three straight defeats. The Colts’ 42-7 loss in Jacksonville is the central challenge to any positive Indianapolis case. A season average of 20.1 points gives less comfort than the model’s near-even matchup suggests.",
      "Dallas is not a complete favourite: it allowed Arizona to recover and win 33-30 in overtime, and Ferguson, Turpin and Pickens all appear on the practice report. Those problems explain why a sizeable home handicap deserves attention. They do not establish an Indianapolis revival. IND +6 remains a model PLAY, with editorial endorsement withheld pending stronger evidence of an offensive response."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Whether Indianapolis can protect Jones and avoid another early deficit.",
      "Dallas receiving availability, particularly Ferguson and Pickens.",
      "The distinction between value in six points and confidence that the Colts have fixed their offence."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Javonte Williams",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036997",
        "team": "DAL",
        "targets": 24,
        "team_targets": 294,
        "receptions": 20,
        "receiving_yards": 104,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 134,
        "rushing_yards": 528,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 9
      },
      {
        "name": "CeeDee Lamb",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036358",
        "team": "DAL",
        "targets": 92,
        "team_targets": 294,
        "receptions": 60,
        "receiving_yards": 709,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": -6,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 6
      },
      {
        "name": "Jonathan Taylor",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036223",
        "team": "IND",
        "targets": 31,
        "team_targets": 255,
        "receptions": 21,
        "receiving_yards": 202,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 148,
        "rushing_yards": 610,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 8
      },
      {
        "name": "Josh Downs",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0038997",
        "team": "IND",
        "targets": 51,
        "team_targets": 255,
        "receptions": 30,
        "receiving_yards": 330,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 1,
        "rushing_yards": 7,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 1
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "withheld",
      "text": "Editorial view: IND +6 is a model PLAY, but endorsement is withheld. Indianapolis has scored 20, 10 and seven in its last three defeats; the available evidence does not yet support the projected rebound."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "DAL",
      "defense": "IND",
      "label": "short-left passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "DAL",
      "defense": "IND",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -0.5,
    "model_total": 54.3,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "IND +6",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": 6.0,
      "book": "Unibet",
      "price": 1.91,
      "edge": 5.5,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 50.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 50.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.85,
      "edge": 3.8,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-05T14:05:59.789052+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w08-c2f54775e6d5",
    "source_sha256": "c2f54775e6d54bedf003af2776987eddce7eb2eaf35f05a4039fc7268b44675e"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 14255,
    "ftn_games": 121,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-9-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.916727+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Dak Prescott",
      "team": "DAL",
      "source_team": "DAL",
      "dropbacks": 631,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 440,
        "epa": 0.36
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 191,
        "epa": -0.28
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Daniel Jones",
      "team": "IND",
      "source_team": "IND",
      "dropbacks": 409,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 295,
        "epa": 0.29
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 114,
        "epa": -0.252
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}