{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "den-at-car-2026-w9",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-08T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 9 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 8 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "DEN",
      "name": "Denver Broncos"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "CAR",
      "name": "Carolina Panthers"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Bank of America Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 25.3,
    "home": 26.8
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.716391+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "DEN": {
        "qb": "Bo Nix",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Bo Nix remains the listed starter.",
        "material_availability": "Jaylen Waddle and Pat Bryant were full participants. Safeties Talanoa Hufanga and Brandon Jones missed Wednesday, along with Kris Abrams-Draine.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:08.398150+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:08.579940+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "CAR": {
        "qb": "Bryce Young",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Bryce Young participated fully Wednesday despite an ankle listing.",
        "material_availability": "Damien Lewis, Jaelan Phillips, Will Lee III and Bobby Okereke did not practise. Torricelli Simpkins III was limited.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.panthers.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:03.738569+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.panthers.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:04.843769+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Carolina’s rebound is the key to the total",
    "intro": "Denver brings a 6-2 record, but the model’s early preference is a higher-scoring game rather than a confident Broncos handicap.",
    "story": [
      "Denver has won its last three, scoring 17, 30 and 28. Carolina has conceded 43 and 27 in its last two, but its own output fell to 13 and 19. The 52.0 model total is therefore asking the Panthers to recover some of their earlier scoring, rather than merely extending their latest results.",
      "There is a plausible route to that recovery if Young’s full participation holds and Denver’s depleted secondary remains short of personnel. There is also a clear objection: Carolina’s offensive line is carrying injuries, with Lewis missing practice. Over 43.5 is the early model PLAY, but the supporting story depends on sustained Panthers drives. Carolina’s home-spread edge stops at LEAN."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Young’s movement and Carolina’s protection, especially Lewis and Simpkins.",
      "Denver’s safety availability after Hufanga and Jones missed Wednesday.",
      "Whether the total remains near 43.5 when the weekend reports arrive."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "J.K. Dobbins",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036158",
        "team": "DEN",
        "targets": 9,
        "team_targets": 225,
        "receptions": 8,
        "receiving_yards": 27,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 94,
        "rushing_yards": 306,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Jaylen Waddle",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036613",
        "team": "DEN",
        "targets": 51,
        "team_targets": 225,
        "receptions": 29,
        "receiving_yards": 315,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": 23,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 2
      },
      {
        "name": "Chuba Hubbard",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036555",
        "team": "CAR",
        "targets": 26,
        "team_targets": 246,
        "receptions": 22,
        "receiving_yards": 150,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 118,
        "rushing_yards": 540,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 7
      },
      {
        "name": "Tetairoa McMillan",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0040124",
        "team": "CAR",
        "targets": 65,
        "team_targets": 246,
        "receptions": 42,
        "receiving_yards": 569,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 2
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "CAR",
      "defense": "DEN",
      "label": "short-middle passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "DEN",
      "defense": "CAR",
      "label": "inside runs"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 1.5,
    "model_total": 52.0,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "CAR +3",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": 3.0,
      "book": "TAB",
      "price": 1.85,
      "edge": 4.5,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 43.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 43.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.88,
      "edge": 8.5,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-05T14:05:59.789052+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w08-c2f54775e6d5",
    "source_sha256": "c2f54775e6d54bedf003af2776987eddce7eb2eaf35f05a4039fc7268b44675e"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 14255,
    "ftn_games": 121,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-9-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.916727+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Bo Nix",
      "team": "DEN",
      "source_team": "DEN",
      "dropbacks": 638,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 466,
        "epa": 0.264
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 172,
        "epa": -0.377
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Bryce Young",
      "team": "CAR",
      "source_team": "CAR",
      "dropbacks": 506,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 353,
        "epa": 0.131
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 153,
        "epa": -0.444
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}