{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "det-at-mia-2026-w9",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-08T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 9 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 8 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "DET",
      "name": "Detroit Lions"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "MIA",
      "name": "Miami Dolphins"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Hard Rock Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 30.4,
    "home": 27.3
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.716391+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "DET": {
        "qb": "Jared Goff",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Jared Goff remains the listed starter.",
        "material_availability": "Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph were limited Wednesday. Jack Campbell, Cade Mays, D.J. Reed and DJ Wonnum did not practise.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:09.245126+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:09.383620+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/news/week-9-opponent-what-the-dolphins-are-saying-goff-hutchinson-bell",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.510271+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "MIA": {
        "qb": "Malik Willis",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Malik Willis participated fully Wednesday with a groin listing.",
        "material_availability": "Jaylen Wright did not practise. Chop Robinson and Zach Sieler were limited; Kadyn Proctor was a full participant.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:16.223142+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:16.108939+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Miami must supply its share of the points",
    "intro": "Detroit has the stronger record. The more difficult question is whether Miami can support a total in the high fifties.",
    "story": [
      "Detroit averages 29.0 points, Miami just 16.7. Their combined 45.7 is well below the model’s 57.7, and Detroit’s last two games finished 20-17 and 19-15. Miami did reach 28 against the Jets before dropping back to 19 against New England. The Over case is possible, but it asks for more than either side’s latest game delivered.",
      "Detroit’s defensive injuries could help Willis, who participated fully Wednesday. St. Brown’s limited session works in the other direction, as do Miami’s own attacking inconsistencies. Over 49.5 is available again and remains a model PLAY, with editorial endorsement withheld until the case for Miami’s scoring contribution is stronger. The Dolphins’ handicap is only a LEAN."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Willis sustaining drives against an injured Detroit defence.",
      "St. Brown’s rib injury and Detroit’s receiving efficiency.",
      "A total moving upward would further reduce the room for a Miami scoring shortfall."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Jahmyr Gibbs",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0039139",
        "team": "DET",
        "targets": 44,
        "team_targets": 244,
        "receptions": 34,
        "receiving_yards": 276,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 157,
        "rushing_yards": 773,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Amon-Ra St. Brown",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036963",
        "team": "DET",
        "targets": 76,
        "team_targets": 244,
        "receptions": 53,
        "receiving_yards": 571,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": 9,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 5
      },
      {
        "name": "Ollie Gordon II",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0040198",
        "team": "MIA",
        "targets": 9,
        "team_targets": 179,
        "receptions": 6,
        "receiving_yards": 14,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 91,
        "rushing_yards": 408,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 4
      },
      {
        "name": "Malik Washington",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0039880",
        "team": "MIA",
        "targets": 45,
        "team_targets": 179,
        "receptions": 31,
        "receiving_yards": 329,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 8,
        "rushing_yards": 38,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 1
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "withheld",
      "text": "Editorial view: Over 49.5 remains a model PLAY. Endorsement is withheld: Miami averages 16.7, and the combined season scoring average of 45.7 does not establish the model’s 57.7-point outcome."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "DET",
      "defense": "MIA",
      "label": "deep-right passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "MIA",
      "defense": "DET",
      "label": "deep-right passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -3.2,
    "model_total": 57.7,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "MIA +7.5",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": 7.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.92,
      "edge": 4.3,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 49.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 49.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.85,
      "edge": 8.2,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-05T14:05:59.789052+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w08-c2f54775e6d5",
    "source_sha256": "c2f54775e6d54bedf003af2776987eddce7eb2eaf35f05a4039fc7268b44675e"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 14255,
    "ftn_games": 121,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-9-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.916727+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Jared Goff",
      "team": "DET",
      "source_team": "DET",
      "dropbacks": 614,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 429,
        "epa": 0.453
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 185,
        "epa": -0.472
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Malik Willis",
      "team": "MIA",
      "source_team": "GB",
      "dropbacks": 38,
      "sufficient": false,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": null,
      "pressure": null
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}