{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "gb-at-ne-2026-w9",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-08T21:25:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 9 Nov, 8:25am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 8 Nov, 4:25pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "GB",
      "name": "Green Bay Packers"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "NE",
      "name": "New England Patriots"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Gillette Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 20.8,
    "home": 21.1
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.716391+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "GB": {
        "qb": "Jordan Love",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Jordan Love remains the listed starter.",
        "material_availability": "Christian Watson, Micah Parsons and Aaron Banks were limited Wednesday. Sean Rhyan, Travis Glover and Zaire Franklin did not practise.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.packers.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:09.345718+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.packers.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:09.562063+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "NE": {
        "qb": "Drake Maye",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Drake Maye participated fully Wednesday with a right-shoulder listing.",
        "material_availability": "A.J. Brown, Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson and Christian Barmore did not practise. Morgan Moses and Carlton Davis III were limited. Mack Hollins has returned to practice within his 21-day window; game clearance is not yet confirmed.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.patriots.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.196500+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.patriots.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.741770+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.patriots.com/news/patriots-gameplan-strength-on-strength-vs-packers-defense-a-pass-heavy-packers-offense-and-key-matchups-in-sunday-s-week-9-matchup",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.562863+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "A close forecast puts receiving depth in focus",
    "intro": "Both teams are 5-3. The model sees little between them, making New England’s crowded offensive injury report especially relevant.",
    "story": [
      "Green Bay beat Carolina 27-19 and New England beat Miami 24-19. Their season scoring and concession rates are also close: neither side has a wide statistical cushion. The model margin is only 0.3 points to New England, so the offered Green Bay handicap draws a lean rather than a formal recommendation.",
      "Maye participated fully, but Brown, Henry and Henderson did not practise. Green Bay has its own protection problems and Watson was limited. That creates a plausible lower-scoring route, yet the game could turn on which receiving group is healthier by kickoff. Both spread and total remain analysis leans."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Brown, Henry and Henderson’s progress for New England.",
      "Green Bay’s offensive line and Watson’s rib issue.",
      "Small changes in the handicap matter when the underlying forecast is nearly level."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "MarShawn Lloyd",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0039811",
        "team": "GB",
        "targets": 17,
        "team_targets": 302,
        "receptions": 13,
        "receiving_yards": 74,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 57,
        "rushing_yards": 149,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Matthew Golden",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0040667",
        "team": "GB",
        "targets": 82,
        "team_targets": 302,
        "receptions": 43,
        "receiving_yards": 619,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 1,
        "rushing_yards": 6,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 4
      },
      {
        "name": "Rhamondre Stevenson",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036875",
        "team": "NE",
        "targets": 27,
        "team_targets": 228,
        "receptions": 23,
        "receiving_yards": 212,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 96,
        "rushing_yards": 367,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "DeMario Douglas",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0038621",
        "team": "NE",
        "targets": 37,
        "team_targets": 228,
        "receptions": 26,
        "receiving_yards": 332,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 4
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "NE",
      "defense": "GB",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "GB",
      "defense": "NE",
      "label": "deep-left passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 0.3,
    "model_total": 41.9,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "GB +3.5",
      "direction": "away",
      "line": 3.5,
      "book": "PointsBet (AU)",
      "price": 1.83,
      "edge": 3.2,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Under 47.5",
      "direction": "under",
      "line": 47.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.85,
      "edge": 5.6,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-05T14:05:59.789052+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w08-c2f54775e6d5",
    "source_sha256": "c2f54775e6d54bedf003af2776987eddce7eb2eaf35f05a4039fc7268b44675e"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 14255,
    "ftn_games": 121,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-9-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.916727+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Jordan Love",
      "team": "GB",
      "source_team": "GB",
      "dropbacks": 461,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 332,
        "epa": 0.544
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 129,
        "epa": -0.543
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Drake Maye",
      "team": "NE",
      "source_team": "NE",
      "dropbacks": 540,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 368,
        "epa": 0.551
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 172,
        "epa": -0.243
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}