{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "hou-at-cle-2026-w10",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-15T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 16 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 15 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "HOU",
      "name": "Houston Texans"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "CLE",
      "name": "Cleveland Browns"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Huntington Bank Field",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 25.3,
    "home": 25.5
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.813068+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "HOU": {
        "qb": "C.J. Stroud",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "C.J. Stroud remains the projected starter after Houston scored 44 against the Chargers. ",
        "material_availability": "The first Week 10 practice report was not available in the captured official injury page. Final designations and inactives are pending.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.houstontexans.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:01.850111+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "CLE": {
        "qb": "Deshaun Watson",
        "starter_status": "reported_expected",
        "note": "Projected: Deshaun Watson. Jeremy Fowler reports Cleveland plans to start him against Houston; the official Week 10 depth chart lists him first. ",
        "material_availability": "The forecast uses the existing Watson basis, with no new numerical adjustment. His return and the final practice picture need confirmation before either model recommendation is endorsed.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:57.877440+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/news/browns-announce-unofficial-depth-chart-for-week-10-vs-the-texans",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:57.946899+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/news/myles-harden-and-carson-schwesinger-stack-strong-performances-news-notes",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:57.734722+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/news/618846/deshaun-watson-concussion-expected-to-start-week-10.php",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:58.782132+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "A Cleveland rebound needs more evidence",
    "intro": "Houston put 44 on the Chargers. Cleveland has lost its last two, scoring six in Pittsburgh before a 23-22 overtime defeat in New Orleans.",
    "story": [
      "The saved model supports Cleveland with the points and an Over. That is a specific forecast of a competitive, higher-scoring game, not an automatic response to Houston’s latest result. The strongest argument for the total is Houston’s demonstrated ability to finish drives; the objection is a Cleveland attack whose recent production has been uneven and whose quarterback is returning from a disrupted week.",
      "Jeremy Fowler reports the Browns plan to start Watson, and the official depth chart lists him first. We therefore show the existing team-history forecast with Watson projected, while keeping the return explicitly conditional. Editorial endorsement of both model plays is withheld until his role and availability are confirmed and the latest price is rechecked. No replacement adjustment has been invented."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Watson’s practice progression and confirmation of the Week 10 starter.",
      "Cleveland correcting the penalties highlighted in its official game review.",
      "Whether Houston can repeat its efficiency against a different defensive opponent."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Nico Collins",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0036554",
        "team": "HOU",
        "targets": 39,
        "team_targets": 268,
        "receptions": 28,
        "receiving_yards": 384,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": 12,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 4
      },
      {
        "name": "Kayshon Boutte",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0038608",
        "team": "HOU",
        "targets": 28,
        "team_targets": 268,
        "receptions": 19,
        "receiving_yards": 319,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 2
      },
      {
        "name": "Quinshon Judkins",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0040784",
        "team": "CLE",
        "targets": 24,
        "team_targets": 276,
        "receptions": 22,
        "receiving_yards": 136,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 116,
        "rushing_yards": 385,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Denzel Boston",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0041037",
        "team": "CLE",
        "targets": 60,
        "team_targets": 276,
        "receptions": 32,
        "receiving_yards": 507,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "withheld",
      "text": "Editorial endorsement withheld for both model plays: CLE +5 and Over 39.5. Watson is projected from a report and the depth chart; his return needs confirmation. Cleveland’s recent offensive inconsistency also leaves the rebound assumption unproven."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "CLE",
      "defense": "HOU",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "CLE",
      "defense": "HOU",
      "label": "deep-right passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 0.2,
    "model_total": 50.7,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "CLE +5",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": 5.0,
      "book": "TAB",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 5.2,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 39.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 39.5,
      "book": "TAB",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 11.2,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-11T14:21:05.660808+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w09-da49d4cd1481",
    "source_sha256": "da49d4cd14811cb623529f9361eb7306dff4c5cfee466776534212e21aeb204b"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 15984,
    "ftn_games": 136,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:10.326522+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "C.J. Stroud",
      "team": "HOU",
      "source_team": "HOU",
      "dropbacks": 446,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 317,
        "epa": 0.299
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 129,
        "epa": -0.433
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Deshaun Watson",
      "team": "CLE",
      "source_team": null,
      "dropbacks": 0,
      "sufficient": false,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": null,
      "pressure": null
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}