{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "hou-at-lac-2026-w9",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-08T21:05:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 9 Nov, 8:05am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 8 Nov, 4:05pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "HOU",
      "name": "Houston Texans"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "LAC",
      "name": "Los Angeles Chargers"
    }
  },
  "venue": "SoFi Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 18.4,
    "home": 12.9
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.716391+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "HOU": {
        "qb": "C.J. Stroud",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "C.J. Stroud remains the listed starter after Houston’s bye.",
        "material_availability": "David Montgomery and Reed Blankenship missed Wednesday. Azeez Al-Shaair and Braden Smith were limited.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.houstontexans.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:10.135760+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:10.700740+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "LAC": {
        "qb": "Justin Herbert",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Justin Herbert remains the listed starter.",
        "material_availability": "David Njoku, Daiyan Henley and Donte Jackson were limited Wednesday. Deane Leonard and Brenen Thompson did not practise.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.chargers.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:15.004224+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.chargers.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:14.911012+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Can Houston make the Chargers chase?",
    "intro": "Houston returns from its bye against an 0-7 opponent whose scoring remains the defining weakness.",
    "story": [
      "The Chargers have scored 17, six and nine in their last three games and average 14.1 overall. Houston’s last three scores were 26, 34 and 21. That gap gives the Texans a clear route to controlling the game if Stroud can establish an early lead.",
      "The model still asks for an unusually quiet game at 31.2 total points. Houston’s recent scoring is the counterweight to that view, and Montgomery’s absence from Wednesday practice does not by itself establish a collapse in production. The spread is a PASS; the Under is an analysis lean. The editorial view supports Houston’s relative advantage without endorsing the extreme low total."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Houston’s rushing options if Montgomery cannot play.",
      "Whether Herbert can keep drives alive without needing difficult third-down conversions.",
      "A healthier Chargers secondary would help the low-total case, but several defenders were limited."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Woody Marks",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0040583",
        "team": "HOU",
        "targets": 17,
        "team_targets": 231,
        "receptions": 14,
        "receiving_yards": 94,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 77,
        "rushing_yards": 271,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 2
      },
      {
        "name": "Dalton Schultz",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0034383",
        "team": "HOU",
        "targets": 43,
        "team_targets": 231,
        "receptions": 33,
        "receiving_yards": 322,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 0
      },
      {
        "name": "Omarion Hampton",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0040666",
        "team": "LAC",
        "targets": 13,
        "team_targets": 204,
        "receptions": 11,
        "receiving_yards": 63,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 89,
        "rushing_yards": 309,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Tre Harris",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0040727",
        "team": "LAC",
        "targets": 28,
        "team_targets": 204,
        "receptions": 18,
        "receiving_yards": 256,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 0
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "partial",
      "text": "Editorial view: Houston has the stronger scoring profile. The 31.2 model total is not endorsed as a precise expectation; the Under remains analysis only."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "LAC",
      "defense": "HOU",
      "label": "inside runs"
    },
    {
      "offense": "LAC",
      "defense": "HOU",
      "label": "deep-left passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -5.5,
    "model_total": 31.2,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "HOU -4.5",
      "direction": "away",
      "line": -4.5,
      "book": "Unibet",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 1.0,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Under 41.5",
      "direction": "under",
      "line": 41.5,
      "book": "PointsBet (AU)",
      "price": 1.87,
      "edge": 10.3,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-05T14:05:59.789052+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w08-c2f54775e6d5",
    "source_sha256": "c2f54775e6d54bedf003af2776987eddce7eb2eaf35f05a4039fc7268b44675e"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 14255,
    "ftn_games": 121,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-9-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.916727+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "C.J. Stroud",
      "team": "HOU",
      "source_team": "HOU",
      "dropbacks": 446,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 317,
        "epa": 0.299
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 129,
        "epa": -0.433
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Justin Herbert",
      "team": "LAC",
      "source_team": "LAC",
      "dropbacks": 566,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 359,
        "epa": 0.318
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 207,
        "epa": -0.531
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}