{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "ind-at-jax-2026-w8",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 2 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 1 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "IND",
      "name": "Indianapolis Colts"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "JAX",
      "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars"
    }
  },
  "venue": "EverBank Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 19.1,
    "home": 29.8
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.716404+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "IND": {
        "qb": "Daniel Jones",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Daniel Jones remains the listed starter and is absent from the current injury report.",
        "material_availability": "Tyler Warren remained limited Thursday, while Sauce Gardner returned to full work. Justin Walley and Bryce Boettcher missed practice. Cam Taylor-Britt was placed on injured reserve.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.420710+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.216700+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/news/colts-sign-cb-kenneth-harris-to-53-man-roster-from-practice-squad-place-cb-cam-taylor-britt-on-injured-reserve-sign-2-players-to-practice-squad",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.271361+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/news/colts-sign-wr-anthony-gould-to-53-man-roster-from-practice-squad-place-wr-alec-pierce-on-injured-reserve-elevate-wr-nick-westbrook-ikhine-to-active-roster-from-practice-squad",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.350571+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "JAX": {
        "qb": "Trevor Lawrence",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Trevor Lawrence remains the listed starter and is absent from the current injury report.",
        "material_availability": "Jakobi Meyers remained limited Thursday and Antonio Johnson missed practice. Brenton Strange practised fully; LeQuint Allen Jr. was added as limited.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.716404+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:20.527413+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Jacksonville's ground game can set the terms",
    "intro": "The Jaguars have the stronger model outlook, although the current line leaves little room for a selection.",
    "story": [
      "Indianapolis has lost its last three games and now visits a Jacksonville side returning from its bye. The Jaguars have won both games played in Jacksonville; their two neutral-site games sit outside that home sample. The Colts have struggled to turn competitive stretches into complete performances.",
      "Jacksonville's leading model opportunities are runs behind left guard and short-right passing. Tuten's workload and Washington's target volume offer practical ways to pursue those advantages. Meyers remains limited, but Strange's full practice gives Lawrence another established option.",
      "Taylor and Downs remain central to Indianapolis' response. Gardner returning to full work helps a secondary that has just lost Taylor-Britt to injured reserve, while Warren's limited practice is worth tracking. The model favours the Jaguars, but a substantial handicap already reflects that difference."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Indianapolis' secondary depth following Taylor-Britt's move to injured reserve.",
      "Meyers and Warren, with both passing games watching important receiving options.",
      "Whether Taylor can keep the Colts within a manageable score and reduce Jacksonville's control of possession."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Jonathan Taylor",
        "label": "Rushing volume",
        "note": "Keeping Taylor involved is one way to reduce the burden on an Indianapolis passing game missing Alec Pierce.",
        "player_id": "00-0036223",
        "team": "IND",
        "targets": 26,
        "team_targets": 225,
        "receptions": 17,
        "receiving_yards": 178,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 140,
        "rushing_yards": 587,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 8
      },
      {
        "name": "Josh Downs",
        "label": "Target volume",
        "note": "The Colts' leading target recipient remains a central route to sustaining drives.",
        "player_id": "00-0038997",
        "team": "IND",
        "targets": 46,
        "team_targets": 225,
        "receptions": 26,
        "receiving_yards": 307,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 1,
        "rushing_yards": 7,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 0
      },
      {
        "name": "Bhayshul Tuten",
        "label": "Rushing matchup",
        "note": "His workload gives Jacksonville a way to test the favourable left-side rushing area in the model.",
        "player_id": "00-0040719",
        "team": "JAX",
        "targets": 14,
        "team_targets": 178,
        "receptions": 13,
        "receiving_yards": 126,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 94,
        "rushing_yards": 388,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 4
      },
      {
        "name": "Parker Washington",
        "label": "Target volume",
        "note": "Jacksonville's leading target recipient offers continuity while Jakobi Meyers remains limited.",
        "player_id": "00-0038606",
        "team": "JAX",
        "targets": 46,
        "team_targets": 178,
        "receptions": 26,
        "receiving_yards": 416,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 1,
        "rushing_yards": 3,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 4
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "JAX",
      "defense": "IND",
      "label": "runs behind left guard"
    },
    {
      "offense": "JAX",
      "defense": "IND",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 10.7,
    "model_total": 49.0,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "JAX -8.5",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": -8.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.88,
      "edge": 2.2,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 46.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 46.5,
      "book": "SportsBet",
      "price": 1.95,
      "edge": 2.5,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-10-30T13:27:12.728399+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w07-5fa3f8e09c72",
    "source_sha256": "5fa3f8e09c724b8476704f27acaa09ff89fc354ac760f7e860c7acf62ae8a8ed"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 12619,
    "ftn_games": 106,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-8-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-30T10:41:43.964426+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Daniel Jones",
      "team": "IND",
      "source_team": "IND",
      "dropbacks": 409,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 295,
        "epa": 0.29
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 114,
        "epa": -0.252
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Trevor Lawrence",
      "team": "JAX",
      "source_team": "JAX",
      "dropbacks": 600,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 442,
        "epa": 0.261
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 158,
        "epa": -0.521
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}