{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "jax-at-ten-2026-w10",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-15T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 16 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 15 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "JAX",
      "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "TEN",
      "name": "Tennessee Titans"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Nissan Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 27.1,
    "home": 8.3
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.813068+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "JAX": {
        "qb": "Trevor Lawrence",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Trevor Lawrence remains the projected starter. ",
        "material_availability": "Jacksonville added safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux at the deadline. Their roles and game availability need confirmation. The first Week 10 practice report was not available in the captured official injury page. Final designations and inactives are pending.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:04.160575+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/falcons-agree-terms-jaguars-trade-jessie-bates-draft-picks",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:51.088293+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/davon-godchaux-new-orleans-saints-roster-moves-transactions-2026-trade-deadline-11-9-2026",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:10.486003+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "TEN": {
        "qb": "Cam Ward",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Cam Ward remains the projected starter after Tennessee’s bye. ",
        "material_availability": "Tennessee traded Amani Hooker to Buffalo, activated Dorian Mausi and placed James Williams Sr. on injured reserve. Robert Saleh deferred further injury updates until Wednesday.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:15.955466+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/news/hot-topics-from-titans-hc-robert-saleh-s-zoom-call-on-monday-x9414",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:15.401249+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/news/titans-trade-safety-amani-hooker-and-a-fifth-round-pick-to-the-buffalo-bills-for-a-second-round-pick-in-the-2027-nfl-draft",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.813068+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/news/titans-activate-lb-dorian-mausi-from-injured-reserve-place-lb-james-williams-sr-on-ir",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.049296+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Jacksonville’s form meets a Tennessee reset",
    "intro": "Jacksonville has scored 42 and 33 in its last two wins. Tennessee returns from a bye after a 43-36 overtime loss to Cincinnati.",
    "story": [
      "Lawrence’s attack has built a substantial recent scoring case, while the Jaguars have also added Bates and Godchaux to their defence. Their availability and assignments still need confirmation. Tennessee, meanwhile, has traded Hooker and changed its linebacker group, making the first post-bye practice report particularly useful.",
      "The model strongly favours Jacksonville but its away handicap remains an analysis lean. Its lower total deserves caution: Tennessee’s last game reached 79 with overtime, while Jacksonville has recently produced plenty of points on its own. One overtime result does not set the next total, but neither does the model erase that opposing evidence. No formal selection is made."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Tennessee’s first injury update after Saleh deferred Monday’s detail.",
      "Jacksonville’s defensive additions translating into actual game roles.",
      "Whether Tennessee can limit early deficits and keep Ward out of predictable passing situations."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Bhayshul Tuten",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0040719",
        "team": "JAX",
        "targets": 16,
        "team_targets": 221,
        "receptions": 15,
        "receiving_yards": 181,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 122,
        "rushing_yards": 521,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 7
      },
      {
        "name": "Parker Washington",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0038606",
        "team": "JAX",
        "targets": 55,
        "team_targets": 221,
        "receptions": 29,
        "receiving_yards": 493,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": 13,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 5
      },
      {
        "name": "Tony Pollard",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0035261",
        "team": "TEN",
        "targets": 21,
        "team_targets": 234,
        "receptions": 14,
        "receiving_yards": 70,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 133,
        "rushing_yards": 595,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 6
      },
      {
        "name": "Carnell Tate",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0041438",
        "team": "TEN",
        "targets": 51,
        "team_targets": 234,
        "receptions": 34,
        "receiving_yards": 413,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 1
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "partial",
      "text": "No formal selection. The Under is an analysis lean; Jacksonville’s recent scoring and Tennessee’s 79-point overtime game are material counterevidence to the low forecast."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "JAX",
      "defense": "TEN",
      "label": "short-middle passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "JAX",
      "defense": "TEN",
      "label": "deep-left passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -18.8,
    "model_total": 35.4,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "JAX -10.5",
      "direction": "away",
      "line": -10.5,
      "book": "SportsBet",
      "price": 1.95,
      "edge": 8.3,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Under 46.5",
      "direction": "under",
      "line": 46.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.95,
      "edge": 11.1,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-11T14:21:05.660808+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w09-da49d4cd1481",
    "source_sha256": "da49d4cd14811cb623529f9361eb7306dff4c5cfee466776534212e21aeb204b"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 15984,
    "ftn_games": 136,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:10.326522+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Trevor Lawrence",
      "team": "JAX",
      "source_team": "JAX",
      "dropbacks": 600,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 442,
        "epa": 0.261
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 158,
        "epa": -0.521
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Cam Ward",
      "team": "TEN",
      "source_team": "TEN",
      "dropbacks": 592,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 407,
        "epa": 0.083
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 185,
        "epa": -0.795
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}