{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "kc-at-den-2026-w8",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T21:25:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 2 Nov, 8:25am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 1 Nov, 4:25pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "KC",
      "name": "Kansas City Chiefs"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "DEN",
      "name": "Denver Broncos"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Empower Field at Mile High",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 21.1,
    "home": 19.8
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:22.834459+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "KC": {
        "qb": "Patrick Mahomes",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Patrick Mahomes practised fully Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury listed.",
        "material_availability": "Travis Kelce moved to limited work Thursday; Rashee Rice remained limited. Mansoor Delane did not practise, while Jaylon Moore and Creed Humphrey practised fully.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.chiefs.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:22.719164+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.chiefs.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:22.629487+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.chiefs.com/news/week-8-injury-report-chiefs-vs-broncos-2026",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:22.834459+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "DEN": {
        "qb": "Bo Nix",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Bo Nix remains the listed starter and is absent from the current injury report.",
        "material_availability": "Jaylen Waddle and Zach Allen returned to limited practice Thursday. Talanoa Hufanga remained out; Garett Bolles and RJ Harvey were limited. Pat Surtain II practised fully.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:21.033558+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:22.234786+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/injuryreport/injury-report-dl-zach-allen-wr-jaylen-waddle-return-to-practice-for-broncos-ahead-of-week-8",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:22.151776+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Denver gets a closer rematch on home ground",
    "intro": "Kansas City won the opener comfortably, but the current model has very little separating these teams.",
    "story": [
      "Kansas City beat Denver decisively in the opening week. Since then the Broncos have won every completed home fixture and their last three games overall. The Chiefs arrive after a low-scoring defeat in Seattle, making this a different test from the first meeting.",
      "Denver's strongest model area is inside running, while Kansas City has a positive area off left tackle. Dobbins and Walker provide established rushing workloads. Neither matchup advantage is large enough to produce a meaningful difference between the model and the current market.",
      "Mahomes practised fully with a knee injury listed, but Kelce and Rice were limited Thursday. Denver has Waddle and Allen back in limited work, with Surtain full and Hufanga still absent. Those availability details may matter more than the very small pricing gaps in the saved forecast."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Kelce and Rice, who shape the receiving options around Mahomes.",
      "Waddle, Bolles and Hufanga as Denver prepares for the return meeting.",
      "Whether either offence can maintain a productive running game. The current spread and total both remain passes."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Kenneth Walker",
        "label": "Rushing volume",
        "note": "The main Kansas City runner offers a way to keep the offence balanced after the loss in Seattle.",
        "player_id": "00-0038134",
        "team": "KC",
        "targets": 27,
        "team_targets": 179,
        "receptions": 18,
        "receiving_yards": 116,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 120,
        "rushing_yards": 701,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 8
      },
      {
        "name": "Travis Kelce",
        "label": "Limited practice",
        "note": "His move to limited work Thursday matters to Mahomes' intermediate options.",
        "player_id": "00-0030506",
        "team": "KC",
        "targets": 35,
        "team_targets": 179,
        "receptions": 24,
        "receiving_yards": 343,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 2
      },
      {
        "name": "J.K. Dobbins",
        "label": "Inside-running opportunity",
        "note": "Denver's largest rushing workload lines up with its strongest model matchup through the middle.",
        "player_id": "00-0036158",
        "team": "DEN",
        "targets": 9,
        "team_targets": 196,
        "receptions": 8,
        "receiving_yards": 27,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 87,
        "rushing_yards": 293,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Jaylen Waddle",
        "label": "Limited practice",
        "note": "He leads Denver in targets, so his return to limited work is a key step for the passing game.",
        "player_id": "00-0036613",
        "team": "DEN",
        "targets": 45,
        "team_targets": 196,
        "receptions": 26,
        "receiving_yards": 276,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": 23,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 1
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "DEN",
      "defense": "KC",
      "label": "inside runs"
    },
    {
      "offense": "KC",
      "defense": "DEN",
      "label": "runs off left tackle"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -1.2,
    "model_total": 40.9,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "DEN +1.5",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": 1.5,
      "book": "Unibet",
      "price": 1.91,
      "edge": 0.3,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 40.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 40.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 0.4,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-10-30T13:27:12.728399+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w07-5fa3f8e09c72",
    "source_sha256": "5fa3f8e09c724b8476704f27acaa09ff89fc354ac760f7e860c7acf62ae8a8ed"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 12619,
    "ftn_games": 106,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-8-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-30T10:41:43.964426+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Patrick Mahomes",
      "team": "KC",
      "source_team": "KC",
      "dropbacks": 537,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 373,
        "epa": 0.252
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 164,
        "epa": -0.157
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Bo Nix",
      "team": "DEN",
      "source_team": "DEN",
      "dropbacks": 638,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 466,
        "epa": 0.264
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 172,
        "epa": -0.377
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}