{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "lv-at-nyj-2026-w8",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 2 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 1 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "LV",
      "name": "Las Vegas Raiders"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "NYJ",
      "name": "New York Jets"
    }
  },
  "venue": "MetLife Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 23.8,
    "home": 31.3
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:25.072648+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "LV": {
        "qb": "Kirk Cousins",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Kirk Cousins remains the listed starter and is absent from the current injury report.",
        "material_availability": "Brock Bowers returned to full practice Thursday. Jackson Powers-Johnson was added as a non-participant with a back injury; DJ Glaze remained limited.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.raiders.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:24.685070+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.raiders.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:24.880174+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.raiders.com/news/las-vegas-raiders-new-york-jets-week-8-injury-report",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:24.819571+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "NYJ": {
        "qb": "Geno Smith",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Geno Smith remains the listed starter and is absent from the current injury report.",
        "material_availability": "Breece Hall remained limited Thursday; Braelon Allen returned to full work. David Bailey, Joseph Ossai, T'Vondre Sweat and Max Mitchell missed both practices.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:24.593052+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:24.969306+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/jets-injury-report-week-8-vs-raiders-thursday-10-29-2026",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:25.072648+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Short passing creates scoring routes for both sides",
    "intro": "The model supports the Jets and the Over, with injuries on both lines adding importance to final team news.",
    "story": [
      "The Raiders have lost their last four games, conceding 30, 45, 33 and 35 points. That defensive run gives the Jets a route to improve on their 19.6-point season average, but the model's 31.3-point forecast still asks for a substantial uplift. New York has lost consecutive fixtures, most recently at home to Miami, and its own inconsistency remains a counterweight.",
      "Short-right passing is the leading positive area for each offence. Bowers returning to full practice gives Cousins a central option, while Garrett Wilson remains the focal point for Smith. The Jets receive the stronger overall forecast despite the Raiders owning the largest individual passing-area advantage.",
      "New York's front is missing Bailey, Ossai and Sweat from practice, while Las Vegas is watching Powers-Johnson and Glaze. Allen's return to full work helps the Jets' backfield with Hall still limited. Both the Jets selection and the Over are exposed to New York scoring well: they share a risk, rather than providing independent confirmation of the forecast."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "The Jets' defensive-front availability against Jeanty and the Raiders' short passing.",
      "Powers-Johnson and Glaze, whose status affects the protection around Cousins.",
      "The exact spread and total. Both model selections depend on retaining sufficient value at the quoted lines."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Ashton Jeanty",
        "label": "Two-way workload",
        "note": "His rushing and receiving involvement can test a Jets front missing several defenders from practice.",
        "player_id": "00-0040122",
        "team": "LV",
        "targets": 44,
        "team_targets": 254,
        "receptions": 34,
        "receiving_yards": 312,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 106,
        "rushing_yards": 328,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 4
      },
      {
        "name": "Brock Bowers",
        "label": "Full practice",
        "note": "A return to full work strengthens Cousins' options in the short passing game.",
        "player_id": "00-0039338",
        "team": "LV",
        "targets": 51,
        "team_targets": 254,
        "receptions": 34,
        "receiving_yards": 455,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Braelon Allen",
        "label": "Full practice",
        "note": "He leads the Jets in carries through Week 7 and returned to full work as Hall remained limited.",
        "player_id": "00-0039794",
        "team": "NYJ",
        "targets": 20,
        "team_targets": 197,
        "receptions": 15,
        "receiving_yards": 75,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 91,
        "rushing_yards": 418,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 2
      },
      {
        "name": "Garrett Wilson",
        "label": "Target volume",
        "note": "The leading Jets target recipient gives Smith a familiar outlet against a defence conceding sizeable scores.",
        "player_id": "00-0037740",
        "team": "NYJ",
        "targets": 51,
        "team_targets": 197,
        "receptions": 37,
        "receiving_yards": 444,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "LV",
      "defense": "NYJ",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "NYJ",
      "defense": "LV",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 7.5,
    "model_total": 55.1,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "NYJ -1",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": -1.0,
      "book": "Unibet",
      "price": 1.91,
      "edge": 6.5,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 45.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 45.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 9.6,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-10-30T13:27:12.728399+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w07-5fa3f8e09c72",
    "source_sha256": "5fa3f8e09c724b8476704f27acaa09ff89fc354ac760f7e860c7acf62ae8a8ed"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 12619,
    "ftn_games": 106,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-8-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-30T10:41:43.964426+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Kirk Cousins",
      "team": "LV",
      "source_team": "ATL",
      "dropbacks": 281,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 186,
        "epa": 0.094
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 95,
        "epa": -0.251
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Geno Smith",
      "team": "NYJ",
      "source_team": "LV",
      "dropbacks": 503,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 339,
        "epa": 0.256
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 164,
        "epa": -0.977
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}