{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "ne-at-det-2026-w10",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-15T14:30:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 16 Nov, 1:30am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 15 Nov, 9:30am ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "NE",
      "name": "New England Patriots"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "DET",
      "name": "Detroit Lions"
    }
  },
  "venue": "FC Bayern Munich Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 24.7,
    "home": 29.5
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.813068+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "NE": {
        "qb": "Drake Maye",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Drake Maye remains the projected starter for Munich. ",
        "material_availability": "The first Week 10 practice report was not available in the captured official injury page. Final designations and inactives are pending.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.patriots.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:09.908207+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "DET": {
        "qb": "Jared Goff",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Jared Goff remains the projected starter for the neutral-site game in Munich. ",
        "material_availability": "The first Week 10 practice report was not available in the captured official injury page. Final designations and inactives are pending.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:59.585959+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Munich removes Detroit’s home advantage",
    "intro": "Detroit won 19-9 in Miami while New England conceded 45 at home to Green Bay. Their next meeting is in Munich, where the nominal home label earns no model advantage.",
    "story": [
      "The Lions have won their last two games with 19 points each time, allowing 15 and nine. That controlled sequence differs sharply from the 72-point game New England just played. The matchup asks whether Goff can keep Detroit’s possessions efficient while its defence makes Maye earn longer drives, or whether New England can pull the game into a higher-scoring exchange.",
      "The neutral venue is a material input, not a travel anecdote: Detroit’s home-field term is set to zero under the existing model rule. The resulting spread edge is below the recommendation threshold. The total also remains short of a formal Over, and neither team’s missing first practice report is evidence of a healthy lineup. This is an analysis-only game at the saved prices."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Both clubs’ first Week 10 practice reports and travelling squads.",
      "Detroit sustaining its recent defensive control against Maye.",
      "A price change large enough to create an actual model edge after neutral-site treatment."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Rhamondre Stevenson",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0036875",
        "team": "NE",
        "targets": 31,
        "team_targets": 264,
        "receptions": 26,
        "receiving_yards": 252,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 102,
        "rushing_yards": 399,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 4
      },
      {
        "name": "DeMario Douglas",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0038621",
        "team": "NE",
        "targets": 46,
        "team_targets": 264,
        "receptions": 31,
        "receiving_yards": 434,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 4
      },
      {
        "name": "Jahmyr Gibbs",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0039139",
        "team": "DET",
        "targets": 45,
        "team_targets": 269,
        "receptions": 34,
        "receiving_yards": 276,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 177,
        "rushing_yards": 847,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 11
      },
      {
        "name": "Amon-Ra St. Brown",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0036963",
        "team": "DET",
        "targets": 86,
        "team_targets": 269,
        "receptions": 61,
        "receiving_yards": 657,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": 9,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 5
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "NE",
      "defense": "DET",
      "label": "short-middle passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "DET",
      "defense": "NE",
      "label": "deep-left passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 4.8,
    "model_total": 54.2,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "DET -2.5",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": -2.5,
      "book": "TABtouch",
      "price": 1.85,
      "edge": 2.3,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 50.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 50.5,
      "book": "SportsBet",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 3.7,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-11T14:21:05.660808+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w09-da49d4cd1481",
    "source_sha256": "da49d4cd14811cb623529f9361eb7306dff4c5cfee466776534212e21aeb204b"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 15984,
    "ftn_games": 136,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:10.326522+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Drake Maye",
      "team": "NE",
      "source_team": "NE",
      "dropbacks": 540,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 368,
        "epa": 0.551
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 172,
        "epa": -0.243
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Jared Goff",
      "team": "DET",
      "source_team": "DET",
      "dropbacks": 614,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 429,
        "epa": 0.453
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 185,
        "epa": -0.472
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}