{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "ne-at-mia-2026-w8",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-01T21:25:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 2 Nov, 8:25am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 1 Nov, 4:25pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "NE",
      "name": "New England Patriots"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "MIA",
      "name": "Miami Dolphins"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Hard Rock Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 29.7,
    "home": 25.5
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:28.686806+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "NE": {
        "qb": "Drake Maye",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Drake Maye practised fully Wednesday and Thursday with a right-shoulder injury listed.",
        "material_availability": "A.J. Brown moved from limited work to no practice Thursday. TreVeyon Henderson also missed practice with illness; Morgan Moses and Ben Brown remained limited.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.patriots.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:27.052745+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.patriots.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:27.685041+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.patriots.com/news/week-8-injury-report-patriots-at-dolphins-x9227",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:28.686806+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "MIA": {
        "qb": "Malik Willis",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Malik Willis practised fully Wednesday and Thursday with a groin injury listed.",
        "material_availability": "Kadyn Proctor remained out with a concussion Thursday. Malik Washington and Greg Dulcich remained limited; Jaylen Wright practised fully.",
        "report_date": "2026-10-29",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:27.122778+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-10-30T13:27:26.737951+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "New England's passing matchup drives the scoring view",
    "intro": "The model's strongest total rating in this batch comes with important receiving injuries to monitor.",
    "story": [
      "Miami secured its first victory at the Jets last week. New England lost in Chicago after winning its previous three fixtures. The Patriots have the stronger model forecast, although the handicap leaves a small analytical preference for Miami rather than a formal side selection.",
      "New England's leading opportunities are short-right and deep-right passing. Douglas and Henry offer established targets, and Stevenson contributes in both phases. But the 55.1-point forecast against a quoted 42.5 asks for a considerable improvement: New England has averaged 17.3 in four road games, and Miami 17.0 in two home games. These small samples do not settle the matchup, but they weigh against a confident Over endorsement.",
      "Willis and Maye both practised fully with injuries listed. Brown's absence from Thursday practice, Miami's limitations around Washington and Dulcich, and Proctor's missed practice weaken the case for both attacks improving together. Henderson also missed practice for New England. The passing opportunities offer a route to more points; the available evidence does not establish that an uplift of this size is likely."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Brown and Henderson for New England; Washington and Dulcich for Miami.",
      "Miami's protection with Proctor still out of practice.",
      "The total and available price. The strong model gap is tied to the saved offer, not a guarantee of scoring."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Rhamondre Stevenson",
        "label": "Two-way workload",
        "note": "His carries and receiving involvement offer continuity while Henderson is dealing with illness.",
        "player_id": "00-0036875",
        "team": "NE",
        "targets": 24,
        "team_targets": 209,
        "receptions": 20,
        "receiving_yards": 204,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 77,
        "rushing_yards": 285,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "DeMario Douglas",
        "label": "Target volume",
        "note": "New England's leading target recipient through Week 7 is an established option while Brown is out of practice.",
        "player_id": "00-0038621",
        "team": "NE",
        "targets": 34,
        "team_targets": 209,
        "receptions": 23,
        "receiving_yards": 256,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Ollie Gordon II",
        "label": "Rushing volume",
        "note": "Miami's leading rusher gives Willis a way to keep the attack balanced.",
        "player_id": "00-0040198",
        "team": "MIA",
        "targets": 8,
        "team_targets": 149,
        "receptions": 6,
        "receiving_yards": 14,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 72,
        "rushing_yards": 339,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 4
      },
      {
        "name": "Malik Washington",
        "label": "Limited practice",
        "note": "Miami's leading target recipient remained limited with a knee injury, making his status important to the scoring outlook.",
        "player_id": "00-0039880",
        "team": "MIA",
        "targets": 39,
        "team_targets": 149,
        "receptions": 26,
        "receiving_yards": 289,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 8,
        "rushing_yards": 38,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 7,
        "definition": "REG through Week 7; valid non-conversion, non-no-play targets; rushing excludes kneels. No appearance denominator.",
        "tds": 0
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "endorsement_withheld",
      "text": "Editorial view: the Over 42.5 remains the model's STRONG recommendation, but we are withholding an editorial endorsement. The modest venue scoring and unresolved receiving availability leave too much of the projected uplift unexplained. STRONG is a model classification, not a measured probability of success."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "NE",
      "defense": "MIA",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "NE",
      "defense": "MIA",
      "label": "deep-right passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -4.2,
    "model_total": 55.1,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "MIA +7",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": 7.0,
      "book": "TABtouch",
      "price": 1.87,
      "edge": 2.8,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 42.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 42.5,
      "book": "PointsBet (AU)",
      "price": 1.87,
      "edge": 12.6,
      "tier": "STRONG",
      "is_bet": true
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-10-30T13:27:12.728399+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w07-5fa3f8e09c72",
    "source_sha256": "5fa3f8e09c724b8476704f27acaa09ff89fc354ac760f7e860c7acf62ae8a8ed"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 12619,
    "ftn_games": 106,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-8-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-10-30T10:41:43.964426+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Drake Maye",
      "team": "NE",
      "source_team": "NE",
      "dropbacks": 540,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 368,
        "epa": 0.551
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 172,
        "epa": -0.243
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Malik Willis",
      "team": "MIA",
      "source_team": "GB",
      "dropbacks": 38,
      "sufficient": false,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": null,
      "pressure": null
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}