{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "nyj-at-kc-2026-w9",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-08T18:00:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 9 Nov, 5:00am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 8 Nov, 1:00pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "NYJ",
      "name": "New York Jets"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "KC",
      "name": "Kansas City Chiefs"
    }
  },
  "venue": "GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 24.4,
    "home": 34.3
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.716391+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "NYJ": {
        "qb": "Geno Smith",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Geno Smith remains the listed starter.",
        "material_availability": "Garrett Wilson missed Wednesday with a concussion. Breece Hall and Mason Taylor were limited; Harrison Phillips also did not practise.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:20.316802+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:20.419513+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "KC": {
        "qb": "Patrick Mahomes",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Patrick Mahomes participated fully Wednesday with a knee listing.",
        "material_availability": "Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice were limited. Peter Woods did not practise; Mansoor Delane was limited.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.chiefs.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:13.165778+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.chiefs.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:13.078780+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "The biggest Over needs both attacks to cooperate",
    "intro": "The model projects 58.6 points, well above the quoted 46.5. Recent scoring and receiving injuries demand a closer look.",
    "story": [
      "The Jets’ 33-38 loss to Las Vegas supplies a high-scoring example, but Kansas City has scored 22, three and 24 in its last three games. The two teams’ season scoring averages add to only 45.1. A 58.6 projection requires a substantial lift above that baseline, not just a repeat of typical production.",
      "Wilson’s concussion is particularly awkward for an Over built on both offences contributing. Kelce and Rice were limited for Kansas City, although Mahomes was a full participant. The model’s STRONG Over classification is retained, but editorial endorsement is withheld: the current evidence does not justify treating the full forecast uplift as established. The spread is a PASS."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Wilson’s clearance and the Jets’ ability to create passing gains without him.",
      "Kelce and Rice’s progression through the practice week.",
      "Whether Kansas City can turn possession into touchdowns after two straight defeats."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Braelon Allen",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0039794",
        "team": "NYJ",
        "targets": 22,
        "team_targets": 228,
        "receptions": 17,
        "receiving_yards": 81,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 112,
        "rushing_yards": 565,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Garrett Wilson",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0037740",
        "team": "NYJ",
        "targets": 63,
        "team_targets": 228,
        "receptions": 43,
        "receiving_yards": 527,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "Kenneth Walker III",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0038134",
        "team": "KC",
        "targets": 32,
        "team_targets": 217,
        "receptions": 22,
        "receiving_yards": 131,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 141,
        "rushing_yards": 770,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 8
      },
      {
        "name": "Travis Kelce",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0030506",
        "team": "KC",
        "targets": 42,
        "team_targets": 217,
        "receptions": 29,
        "receiving_yards": 410,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 2
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "withheld",
      "text": "Editorial view: the model labels Over 46.5 STRONG. Endorsement is withheld because the 58.6 forecast sits well above the teams’ combined 45.1 scoring average, with Wilson in concussion protocol and Kelce and Rice limited."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "KC",
      "defense": "NYJ",
      "label": "short-left passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "NYJ",
      "defense": "KC",
      "label": "short-right passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": 9.9,
    "model_total": 58.6,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "NYJ +10.5",
      "direction": "away",
      "line": 10.5,
      "book": "SportsBet",
      "price": 1.86,
      "edge": 0.6,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 46.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 46.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.85,
      "edge": 12.1,
      "tier": "STRONG",
      "is_bet": true
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-05T14:05:59.789052+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w08-c2f54775e6d5",
    "source_sha256": "c2f54775e6d54bedf003af2776987eddce7eb2eaf35f05a4039fc7268b44675e"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 14255,
    "ftn_games": 121,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-9-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.916727+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Geno Smith",
      "team": "NYJ",
      "source_team": "LV",
      "dropbacks": 503,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 339,
        "epa": 0.256
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 164,
        "epa": -0.977
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Patrick Mahomes",
      "team": "KC",
      "source_team": "KC",
      "dropbacks": 537,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 373,
        "epa": 0.252
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 164,
        "epa": -0.157
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}