{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "pit-at-cin-2026-w10",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-16T01:20:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 16 Nov, 12:20pm AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 15 Nov, 8:20pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "PIT",
      "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "CIN",
      "name": "Cincinnati Bengals"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Paycor Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 29.3,
    "home": 28.6
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.813068+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "PIT": {
        "qb": "Aaron Rodgers",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Aaron Rodgers remains the projected starter as Pittsburgh returns from its bye. ",
        "material_availability": "The first Week 10 practice report was not available in the captured official injury page. Final designations and inactives are pending.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.steelers.com/team/depth-chart/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:13.421105+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.steelers.com/news/good-to-get-away-but-time-to-re-activate",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:13.487293+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "CIN": {
        "qb": "Joe Burrow",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Joe Burrow remains the projected starter after Cincinnati’s win in Madrid. ",
        "material_availability": "Cashius Howell and Erick All Jr. are on injured reserve. The first Week 10 practice report was not available in the captured official injury page. Final designations and inactives are pending.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.bengals.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:56.427748+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.bengals.com/news/week-10-2026-steelers-scouting-report-preview",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:56.828075+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.bengals.com/news/cashius-howell-reserve-injured-list-roster-update-2026",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:56.657124+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "A familiar rivalry returns with an Over signal",
    "intro": "Both teams are 6-2 and on four-game winning runs. Pittsburgh returns from its bye; Cincinnati comes back from a 34-17 win in Madrid.",
    "story": [
      "The Steelers won the first meeting 30-27. Cincinnati’s last two games finished 43-36 after overtime and 34-17, providing recent support for a scoring case. Pittsburgh’s 27-6 win over Cleveland before the bye is the counterweight: its defence can keep a game well below the number if it disrupts the opposing offence early.",
      "The model recommends Over 48.5 at the saved quote. The selection is supported by the matchup’s scoring evidence, with the bye and international travel treated as context rather than invented point adjustments. The Pittsburgh handicap remains an analysis lean. Final practice reports and changing prices remain relevant to the Over assessment."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "The first full practice reports after Pittsburgh’s bye and Cincinnati’s travel.",
      "Burrow sustaining drives against Pittsburgh’s improving defence.",
      "The Over price remaining available at a line supported by the model."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Jaylen Warren",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0037228",
        "team": "PIT",
        "targets": 36,
        "team_targets": 268,
        "receptions": 25,
        "receiving_yards": 294,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 119,
        "rushing_yards": 704,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "DK Metcalf",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0035640",
        "team": "PIT",
        "targets": 64,
        "team_targets": 268,
        "receptions": 33,
        "receiving_yards": 378,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 1,
        "rushing_yards": 11,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 1
      },
      {
        "name": "Chase Brown",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0038597",
        "team": "CIN",
        "targets": 45,
        "team_targets": 289,
        "receptions": 39,
        "receiving_yards": 207,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 103,
        "rushing_yards": 397,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 1
      },
      {
        "name": "Ja'Marr Chase",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0036900",
        "team": "CIN",
        "targets": 73,
        "team_targets": 289,
        "receptions": 53,
        "receiving_yards": 647,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "CIN",
      "defense": "PIT",
      "label": "deep-right passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "CIN",
      "defense": "PIT",
      "label": "short-left passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -0.7,
    "model_total": 57.8,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "PIT +3.5",
      "direction": "away",
      "line": 3.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.92,
      "edge": 4.2,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Over 48.5",
      "direction": "over",
      "line": 48.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.88,
      "edge": 9.3,
      "tier": "PLAY",
      "is_bet": true
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-11T14:21:05.660808+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w09-da49d4cd1481",
    "source_sha256": "da49d4cd14811cb623529f9361eb7306dff4c5cfee466776534212e21aeb204b"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 15984,
    "ftn_games": 136,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:10.326522+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Aaron Rodgers",
      "team": "PIT",
      "source_team": "PIT",
      "dropbacks": 526,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 415,
        "epa": 0.227
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 111,
        "epa": -0.71
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Joe Burrow",
      "team": "CIN",
      "source_team": "CIN",
      "dropbacks": 278,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 195,
        "epa": 0.268
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 83,
        "epa": -0.297
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}