{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "sf-at-dal-2026-w10",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-15T21:25:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 16 Nov, 8:25am AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 15 Nov, 4:25pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "SF",
      "name": "San Francisco 49ers"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "DAL",
      "name": "Dallas Cowboys"
    }
  },
  "venue": "AT&T Stadium",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 26.5,
    "home": 22.9
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:16.813068+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "SF": {
        "qb": "Brock Purdy",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Brock Purdy remains the projected starter after the 38-17 win over Las Vegas. ",
        "material_availability": "San Francisco acquired Keenan Allen from Indianapolis; his role needs confirmation. Kyle Shanahan expects Deebo Samuel Sr. and C.J. West to return to practice. Mike Evans is not expected to be ready this week. Those practice expectations are not final game clearance.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.49ers.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:14.618240+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.49ers.com/news/after-further-review-shanahan-shares-injury-updates-talks-defensive-performance-following-week-9-win",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:15.311531+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.colts.com/news/colts-release-unofficial-depth-chart-for-week-10",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:01.701453+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "DAL": {
        "qb": "Dak Prescott",
        "starter_status": "projected",
        "note": "Dak Prescott remains the projected starter. ",
        "material_availability": "Dallas has ruled PJ Locke out against San Francisco. Jake Ferguson and Tyler Goodson are expected to miss multiple weeks with knee injuries.",
        "report_date": "First Week 10 practice report pending; dated team updates shown above",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:58.410421+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/cowboys-injury-roundup-tough-decisions-ahead-as-ferguson-locke-others-get-bad-news",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:21:58.558819+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Dallas must replace key support around Prescott",
    "intro": "San Francisco is 7-1 after beating Las Vegas 38-17. Dallas returns home from a 27-23 win in Indianapolis with new injuries at tight end and safety.",
    "story": [
      "Ferguson’s expected multiweek absence removes an established option from Prescott’s passing game, and Locke has already been ruled out. San Francisco has its own uncertainty: Samuel and C.J. West are expected back at practice, while Evans is not expected to be ready this week. The difference between returning to practice and being ready for a full role matters to both teams.",
      "The market is asking for a high-scoring game, while the model leans lower. That Under direction remains analysis only, and the spread produces no formal selection. San Francisco’s latest 38-point performance and Dallas’ capacity to score at home are reasons to demand a clear price advantage before endorsing an aggressive low-total view."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Dallas’ replacement roles for Ferguson and Locke.",
      "Samuel’s progression from practice toward actual game availability.",
      "Whether the 49ers force Dallas into long drives or concede quick scores."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Christian McCaffrey",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0033280",
        "team": "SF",
        "targets": 45,
        "team_targets": 228,
        "receptions": 36,
        "receiving_yards": 270,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 102,
        "rushing_yards": 457,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "George Kittle",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0033288",
        "team": "SF",
        "targets": 53,
        "team_targets": 228,
        "receptions": 38,
        "receiving_yards": 483,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 0,
        "rushing_yards": 0,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 5
      },
      {
        "name": "Javonte Williams",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0036997",
        "team": "DAL",
        "targets": 29,
        "team_targets": 328,
        "receptions": 24,
        "receiving_yards": 127,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 154,
        "rushing_yards": 629,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "CeeDee Lamb",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 9, not a forecast of this game’s workload. Projected role; final availability remains subject to team reports.",
        "player_id": "00-0036358",
        "team": "DAL",
        "targets": 108,
        "team_targets": 328,
        "receptions": 70,
        "receiving_yards": 904,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": -6,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 9,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 9. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 7
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "partial",
      "text": "No formal selection. The Under is an analysis lean, with San Francisco’s recent scoring and both teams’ changing availability requiring care."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "SF",
      "defense": "DAL",
      "label": "short-left passing"
    },
    {
      "offense": "DAL",
      "defense": "SF",
      "label": "short-left passing"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -3.6,
    "model_total": 49.3,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "DAL +5.5",
      "direction": "home",
      "line": 5.5,
      "book": "Dabble AU",
      "price": 1.85,
      "edge": 1.9,
      "tier": "PASS",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Under 56",
      "direction": "under",
      "line": 56.0,
      "book": "TABtouch",
      "price": 1.88,
      "edge": 6.7,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-11T14:21:05.660808+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w09-da49d4cd1481",
    "source_sha256": "da49d4cd14811cb623529f9361eb7306dff4c5cfee466776534212e21aeb204b"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 15984,
    "ftn_games": 136,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-11T14:22:10.326522+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Brock Purdy",
      "team": "SF",
      "source_team": "SF",
      "dropbacks": 298,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 214,
        "epa": 0.446
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 84,
        "epa": -0.448
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Dak Prescott",
      "team": "DAL",
      "source_team": "DAL",
      "dropbacks": 631,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 440,
        "epa": 0.36
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 191,
        "epa": -0.28
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}