{
  "schema": "savvyplays-public-preview/1",
  "slug": "tb-at-chi-2026-w9",
  "header": {
    "kickoff_utc": "2026-11-09T01:20:00+00:00",
    "kickoff_aest": "Mon 9 Nov, 12:20pm AEDT",
    "kickoff_et": "Sun 8 Nov, 8:20pm ET",
    "away": {
      "abbr": "TB",
      "name": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers"
    },
    "home": {
      "abbr": "CHI",
      "name": "Chicago Bears"
    }
  },
  "venue": "Soldier Field",
  "forecast": {
    "away": 17.2,
    "home": 15.9
  },
  "unrated": false,
  "availability": {
    "checked_at": "2026-11-05T14:07:24.716391+00:00",
    "teams": {
      "TB": {
        "qb": "Baker Mayfield",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Baker Mayfield participated fully Wednesday with his right thumb listed.",
        "material_availability": "Emeka Egbuka and Yaya Diaby did not practise. Kenny Gainwell and Tykee Smith were limited.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.buccaneers.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:22.614020+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.buccaneers.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:22.695611+00:00"
          }
        ]
      },
      "CHI": {
        "qb": "Caleb Williams",
        "starter_status": "expected",
        "note": "Caleb Williams remains the listed starter.",
        "material_availability": "Kyle Monangai, Theo Benedet and Grady Jarrett did not practise Wednesday. T.J. Edwards was absent for personal reasons.",
        "report_date": "4 Nov 2026",
        "source_evidence": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.chicagobears.com/team/depth-chart",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:04.204898+00:00"
          },
          {
            "url": "https://www.chicagobears.com/team/injury-report/",
            "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:04.661067+00:00"
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "enhanced": {
    "title": "Chicago’s scoring challenges a low forecast",
    "intro": "The Bears are 6-2 and have scored at least 30 in three straight games. That is the key objection to the model’s 33.1 total.",
    "story": [
      "Chicago’s last three scores are 31, 30 and 34. Tampa Bay has won its last two by 43-13 and 16-0, but those very different scorelines warn against treating the shutout as the only guide. The teams’ season scoring averages add to 49.0, far above the model’s total.",
      "The Buccaneers’ defensive form makes a competitive game plausible, and the model leans to their handicap. It does not make the full low-total forecast persuasive against this Chicago attack. Both calls remain analysis only. Editorially, there is no endorsement of the extreme Under, especially before Egbuka and Monangai’s availability is settled."
    ],
    "changes": [
      "Whether Tampa Bay can interrupt Chicago’s recent offensive rhythm.",
      "Egbuka’s foot injury and Monangai’s thumb/toe listing.",
      "Separating a competitive Buccaneers handicap from an aggressive low-scoring prediction."
    ],
    "players": [
      {
        "name": "Bucky Irving",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0039361",
        "team": "TB",
        "targets": 23,
        "team_targets": 201,
        "receptions": 18,
        "receiving_yards": 78,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 147,
        "rushing_yards": 728,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 6
      },
      {
        "name": "Emeka Egbuka",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0040129",
        "team": "TB",
        "targets": 49,
        "team_targets": 201,
        "receptions": 28,
        "receiving_yards": 240,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 2,
        "rushing_yards": 11,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      },
      {
        "name": "D'Andre Swift",
        "label": "Rushing role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0036275",
        "team": "CHI",
        "targets": 28,
        "team_targets": 258,
        "receptions": 24,
        "receiving_yards": 162,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 143,
        "rushing_yards": 545,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Luther Burden III",
        "label": "Receiving role",
        "note": "Season usage through Week 8. See the team news above for current availability.",
        "player_id": "00-0040735",
        "team": "CHI",
        "targets": 56,
        "team_targets": 258,
        "receptions": 42,
        "receiving_yards": 547,
        "rush_attempts_excluding_kneels": 8,
        "rushing_yards": 29,
        "appearances": null,
        "td_game_rate": null,
        "through_week": 8,
        "definition": "2026 REG through Week 8. Valid non-conversion targets; rushing excludes kneels.",
        "tds": 3
      }
    ],
    "editorial_decision": {
      "status": "partial",
      "text": "Editorial view: no formal bet. Chicago’s 31, 30 and 34 points in its last three games are substantial contrary evidence to the 33.1 model total."
    }
  },
  "matchup_areas": [
    {
      "offense": "CHI",
      "defense": "TB",
      "label": "runs off right end"
    },
    {
      "offense": "TB",
      "defense": "CHI",
      "label": "inside runs"
    }
  ],
  "the_call": {
    "model_margin": -1.4,
    "model_total": 33.1,
    "spread": {
      "pick": "TB +6.5",
      "direction": "away",
      "line": 6.5,
      "book": "SportsBet",
      "price": 1.9,
      "edge": 7.9,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    },
    "total": {
      "pick": "Under 47.5",
      "direction": "under",
      "line": 47.5,
      "book": "TABtouch",
      "price": 1.91,
      "edge": 14.4,
      "tier": "LEAN",
      "is_bet": false
    }
  },
  "market": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-05T14:05:59.789052+00:00"
  },
  "statistical_edition": {
    "id": "2026-reg-w08-c2f54775e6d5",
    "source_sha256": "c2f54775e6d54bedf003af2776987eddce7eb2eaf35f05a4039fc7268b44675e"
  },
  "samples": {
    "model_eligible_plays": 14255,
    "ftn_games": 121,
    "participation_current_available": false
  },
  "schedule_evidence": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-9-injury-report-2026-season",
      "captured_at": "2026-11-05T14:06:17.916727+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "historical_pressure": {
    "source": {
      "season": 2025,
      "through_week": 18
    },
    "away": {
      "qb": "Baker Mayfield",
      "team": "TB",
      "source_team": "TB",
      "dropbacks": 584,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 431,
        "epa": 0.181
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 153,
        "epa": -0.533
      }
    },
    "home": {
      "qb": "Caleb Williams",
      "team": "CHI",
      "source_team": "CHI",
      "dropbacks": 594,
      "sufficient": true,
      "withheld": false,
      "clean": {
        "dropbacks": 416,
        "epa": 0.239
      },
      "pressure": {
        "dropbacks": 178,
        "epa": -0.321
      }
    }
  },
  "disclaimer": "We take care to check our data and analysis, but errors can occur and team news or prices may change. Statistics reflect the periods shown; forecasts are estimates, not guarantees."
}