Open d'Italia
Circolo Golf Torino · June 25–28, 2026
No course profile, no headline conviction. Circolo Golf Torino is hosting the Open d'Italia at a venue with zero rounds in our database — the model runs equal weights, the Euro edge cap is applied, and the value board is broad rather than concentrated. The play this week is in the deep end of the board: longshots with positive top-10 edge in a 156-player field.
Circolo Golf Torino
Circolo Golf Torino is new to our database — no historical rounds. The model defaults to equal weights across all skill categories. 149 of 156 players have recent-form history. The Euro edge cap is applied to reduce volatility on smaller-field European tour events. The result is a broad value board rather than the concentrated conviction seen at major-venue weeks.
Season Context
Four Outright Winners This Season
Snedeker $351 · Rai $281 · Sterne $501 · Clark $60
Two major champions from the value list. Eleven events with T10 hits out of twelve reviewed. The Euro tour side has been productive too: Sterne won the Soudal Open at $501 as a Radar pick, Ritchie hit T3 at Catalunya, and Kinhult finished T2.
The Setup — Equal Weights, Euro Cap
Circolo Golf Torino is new to our database. With no historical rounds to weight skill categories, the model defaults to equal weights across approach, putting, off-the-tee, and around-green. 149 of 156 players have at least some recent-form history, so the field is well-modelled even without course-specific data. The Euro edge cap reduces volatility on European tour events where smaller fields and unique conditions can otherwise distort the simulation. The result is a broad value board — 15 players with positive edge — rather than the concentrated conviction seen at Shinnecock.
The Value Board — The Full 15
Recurring Euro names dominate the top of the board. Winther's +8.2pp top-10 edge at $391 is the highest-edge longshot on the card. Ritchie hit T3 at Catalunya already this season. Molinari (Edoardo) is the hometown pick at $1,401 with a +8.9pp top-10 edge — the kind of low-stakes, high-upside ticket the Radar tier was built for. Luiten and Clements are reliable Euro tour regulars whose underlying skill exceeds their market pricing.
Head-to-Head Matchup Value
Grace over Detry — +22% EV. Our model: Grace 60.4%, offered 2.02 (49.5% implied). EV = 0.604 × 2.02 − 1 = +22%. Luiten over Manassero — +18% EV. Our model: Luiten 58.2%, offered 2.03 (49.3% implied). EV = 0.582 × 2.03 − 1 = +18%. Hillier over Detry — +14% EV. Our model: Hillier 58.2%, offered 1.96 (51.0% implied). EV = 0.582 × 1.96 − 1 = +14%.
First Round Leader
Niemann leads FRL probability at 3.6% (fair $27.6) — PM wave. Puig 2.1% (fair $48.3) — PM. Reed 2.0% (fair $49.5) — AM. Grace 1.8% (fair $54.4) — PM.
Make / Miss Cut Fades
Palmer (85.5% miss, fair $6.92 vs book $4.00) — FADE. Overton (80.5% miss, fair $5.13 vs book $4.45) — FADE. Strydom (80.0% miss, fair $5.00 vs book $3.80) — FADE. Logan (77.6% miss, fair $4.46 vs book $2.78) — FADE.
Who We're Watching — The Caution Zone
17 Players Flagged
Seventeen players carry consensus signal that significantly exceeds our model on this Euro field. Niemann (the market favourite at $10), Puig, Patrick Reed, Ayora, McKibbin, Wallace, and Detry are the biggest names. With no course profile to ground the model, we lean toward consensus on these names rather than fighting it. The volume of adjustments tells you this is a wide-open Euro field where our edge sits in the deep end of the board, not at the top.
Value Picks
| Player | Our Win% | Market $ | Edge | T10 Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winther, Jeff | 1.5% | 391.00 | +1.20pp | +8.20pp |
| Ritchie, JC | 2.2% | 91.00 | +1.10pp | +1.90pp |
| Clements, Todd | 1.7% | 162.00 | +1.10pp | +4.10pp |
| Lagergren, Joakim | 1.5% | 246.00 | +1.10pp | +6.60pp |
| Luiten, Joost | 1.4% | 202.00 | +1.00pp | +6.40pp |
| Girrbach, Joel | 1.3% | 301.00 | +0.90pp | +5.50pp |
| Molinari, Edoardo | 0.9% | 1401.00 | +0.80pp | +8.90pp |
| Dantorp, Jens | 1.1% | 371.00 | +0.80pp | +6.60pp |
| Kinhult, Marcus | 1.2% | 234.00 | +0.80pp | +3.20pp |
| Wu, Ashun | 1.1% | 316.00 | +0.80pp | +5.10pp |
| Lee, Junghwan | 1.0% | 526.00 | +0.80pp | +4.40pp |
| Da Costa Rodrigues, Daniel | 1.1% | 231.00 | +0.70pp | +5.10pp |
| Hollick, Michael | 0.9% | 501.00 | +0.70pp | +4.10pp |
| Buchanan, Jack | 0.8% | 1501.00 | +0.70pp | +6.70pp |
| Jamieson, Scott | 0.9% | 351.00 | +0.70pp | +5.90pp |
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 24 June
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice