NRL

On-field plus/minus for all 17 NRL clubs: the players who move the scoreboard most when they're on the park, and the ones quietly dragging it backwards.

Four straight to the Sharks, the round's widest PCS gap (+49.1) and Cronulla at 94% Best 17. Brookvale is a 63% Manly fortress, but the class gap is decisive. Strong tip: Sharks by 4.

A coin-flip model line (Titans -0.9) between two strugglers. The Dragons' 64% Jubilee record, a 3-2 recent H2H and a +3.2 CI/DS edge tip a thin lean home. Lean tip: Dragons.

The Broncos own the H2H (4-1) and a 67% record in Townsville, but the model likes the Cowboys by 5.5 with a +11.7 PCS edge. CI/DS is level. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.

Canterbury own a three-game head-to-head streak, but the Warriors lead on ELO (+133), CI/DS (+3.5) and bench PCS (42.6 v 10.7). The 42% Accor record is the risk. Lean tip: Warriors by 9.

Canberra are middling, but the Tigers have named a bottom-tier sheet at -10.7 squad ±/G. Edge Engine +3 Lean Home, model margin +15.4. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.

The model says coin flip, but the Storm are at 59% Best 17 with Wishart and Toelau in the halves. With both sides disrupted, the CI/DS ledger (+3.3 Souths) breaks the tie. Lean tip: Rabbitohs.

Five straight to the Roosters, 75% for the visitors at McDonald Jones and a +10.0 model margin. The squads are close but the trends are one-way. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.

Five straight Panthers wins, a 22.5-point squad-average gap and a -24.6 PCS deficit for the Eels. The losing streak is real but the class gap is vast. Strong tip: Panthers by 18.

Four of the last five and a 57% Suncorp record say Dolphins — but the 0-66 hangover and the worst Consistency Index in the NRL say tread carefully. Lean tip: Dolphins by 6.

The edge model's strongest away signal of the round: Manly wins 62% at Cbus, the Titans just 43% at home. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 14.

Two struggling sides, but the Tigers' 37% record at Accor and Koroisau's demotion to the reserves tip it. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.

Five Warriors return at the Mt Smart fortress against a 2-14 Dragons side with the worst squad numbers in the competition. Strong tip: Warriors by 20.

Five straight to Canberra in the fixture, but the model calls it a coin flip and the squad numbers favour Souths. Lean tip: Raiders by 2.

The Storm arrive without Munster and Hughes; the Roosters without Tedesco. The disruption ledger favours the home side. Lean tip: Roosters by 6.

Fresh off a 66-0 statement, the Sharks return to their 83% fortress against a Knights side losing two forwards. Strong tip: Sharks by 12.

The Broncos get everyone back and it still isn't enough on the numbers — PCS gap +31.3, ELO gap 306, H2H 4-1. Strong tip: Panthers by 20.

The NRL's strongest fortress (77%) against its worst bogey record (17%, avg margin -16.8). Strong tip: Storm by 18.

Four straight H2H wins and the Brookvale fortress — but the Cowboys travel to this ground unusually well. Lean tip: Sea Eagles by 6.

Walker out, Ponga and Best back, and four straight Knights wins in the fixture. A model-override tip. Strong: Knights by 8.

PCS gap +59.0, squad ±/G +0.2 v -8.7, and the Eels win just 29% at Allianz. Strong tip: Roosters by 18.

Three straight H2H wins to the Bulldogs, and the form metrics — territory 1.45 v 0.87, completion 81% v 75% — all point the same way. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 4.

Dolphins 3-1 in the fixture — all four prior meetings away. Now it comes to the Redcliffe fortress (59.5%). Lean tip: Dolphins by 6.

Koroisau out — Lanyon debuts at hooker. Squad ±/G gap of 14.0, the widest of the round. Strong tip: Warriors by 12.

Knights 5-0 H2H — longest active streak in the matchup. Dolphins DS 18.3 but remaining squad still +7.8. Lean tip: Knights by 6.

Squad ±/G gap +17.2 to Manly — widest in R18. Sea Eagles field Faulalo, Fogarty and Trbojevic despite DS 9.9. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 12.

Broncos at 53% Best 17 for the third time this year. Squad PCS gap the widest in R18. Strong tip: Sharks by 10.

Luai out is a positive for the Tigers. Squad ±/G gap +10.6 to the visitors. Lean tip: Wests Tigers by 4.

Cleary, Yeo and Martin all out — DS 11.7. Panthers' remaining squad still averages +12.4 ±/G. Strong tip: Panthers by 10.

Ponga returns at 94% Best 17. Tigers' spine reinforced with Doueihi and Koroisau. Lean tip: Knights by 6.

Dragons 14% at GIO (worst venue bogey in the NRL). Raiders 4-1 H2H. PCS gap +49.5. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.

Hughes out for the Storm. Brookvale fortress at 63%. CI/DS edge +3.6 to the home side. Lean tip: Sea Eagles.

Cleary, To'o and Yeo all return. Squad ±/G gap +22.2 per game. Strong tip: Panthers by 15.

Widest squad PCS gap of the round (+50.9). Dolphins 88% Best 17 vs Warriors 65%. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.

Both Broncos halves out. Roosters 4-1 H2H. Squad ±/G gap +9.0. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.

Bulldogs 4-1 H2H. Cbus venue bogey (3-10 historical). Squads identical at -5.5 ±/G. Lean tip: Bulldogs.

Rabbitohs 4-1 H2H with a three-game streak. Squad ±/G gap +12.7 per game. Strong tip: Rabbitohs by 8.

Full Roosters Origin contingent returns. Both teams 94% best-17. Sharks lead H2H 3-2. Predict margin +2.4 — Lean Roosters.

AAMI Park 79% Storm fortress. But Raiders lead H2H 3-2 and CI/DS -3.1 favours the visitors. Lean Storm by 8.

Warriors 4-game H2H streak. Mt Smart fortress 59%. Cowboys at 82% best-17 with Origin returners. Lean Warriors.

Sea Eagles 4-1 H2H. Tom Trbojevic returns. Squad ±/G gap +13.9 per game. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 8.

Panthers 5-0 H2H streak. 71% at Cbus. ELO gap 377. Cleary, To'o, Yeo on reserves. Strong tip: Panthers by 20.

Dolphins DS 13.2 with Katoa, Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo out — but the named Dolphins squad is still +18 ±/G clear of the Tigers. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.

The Raiders and Tigers were shut out. Storm survived the Knights by two. And the tipping tracker ticks to +7.4% ROI through eight rounds.

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