The model prices STL's true win probability at 51.8%, while the implied market probability at +146 sits closer to 40.7% — that 7.6-point gap is where the value lives. López carries a surface ERA of 3.18, but his FIP of 4.34 suggests meaningful regression risk, and a pitcher composite of 58.96 isn't commanding enough to justify this spread in price. STL's lineup posts a .710 OPS against right-handers, and with Atlanta's offense checking in at just .682 OPS against lefties, Liberatore's composite of 50.47 is less of a liability than the -146 market price implies. A neutral run factor (100) removes any park-based distortion, leaving this as a straightforward disagreement with how sharply the public has discounted the Cardinals' chances.