The model prices STL at 51.8% win probability against a market implied by the 2.46 line, generating a +7.6% edge that justifies a Tier 2 play. López carries the stronger surface numbers — a 3.18 ERA and 58.96 composite versus Liberatore's 5.34 ERA and 50.47 — but his FIP sits 1.16 runs above his ERA, signaling the underlying peripherals are considerably softer than the results line suggests. Atlanta's lineup posts just a .678 OPS against left-handed pitching, which tempers the damage Liberatore's 1.53 WHIP and elevated walk tendencies might otherwise invite, and a neutral park factor keeps run-environment noise out of the equation. The gap between the two composites (58.96 vs. 50.47) is real but not decisive enough to override a line the model reads as overcorrected against a Cardinals club with a functional .708 OPS vs. righties.