The core of this play is the enormous gap between the two starters' composite scores: Thornton grades at 64.67 versus Tolle's 25.83, signaling a meaningful pitching edge for New York despite Tolle's surface-level 3.14 ERA. Tolle's FIP of 3.47 suggests some regression risk, and his xERA is unavailable for further validation — a data gap the model is already discounting. The Mets' lineup carries a modest 6-9 last-15 record with a .723 OPS over that stretch, while Boston's .797 OPS against left-handed pitching is a legitimate concern, but the model assigns NYM a 65.6% win probability against a market implying roughly 49.5% — that's a +16.1% edge the model rates as Tier 1 confidence. At +102 odds, the math favors backing the Mets despite the lineup matchup headwinds.