Dolphins v Roosters

The Predict model gives Roosters a slight edge on raw ladder position — they're 8-4 to the Dolphins' 7-5. But the model uses overall team PCS, not the named squads. When you look at who's actually playing on Friday night at Suncorp, the picture shifts significantly toward the home side.

The Dolphins start with 11 positive starters from 13, led by Jeremy Marshall-King (+20.5 ±/G) at hooker and Jack Bostock (+22.0 ±/G) at centre — two of the best individual performers in the competition this year. Isaiya Katoa (+6.4) and Jamayne Isaako (+6.4) give them a dangerous spine-to-edge combination.

The Roosters counter with Hugo Savala (+14.1) and a solid middle unit, but their backline is fragile. Ramsey, Smith, and Butcher are all negative on the season, and Foley and Talau bring no ±/G data — likely first or second appearances. That is too much uncertainty in the outside backs to trust the Roosters away from home. Strong tip.

Suncorp Stadium has been a genuine home fortress for the Dolphins. They are 16-12 (57%) at home here with an average winning margin of +3.6 points. The Roosters are 9-11 (45%) when travelling to Suncorp, a venue that has proven difficult for Sydney teams.

The H2H tilts toward the Roosters across the last five meetings (4-1), but context matters. The Dolphins' one win came at home in 2023 R1 (28-18). The Roosters' three away wins include the 64-12 thrashing in 2025 R23 — a statistical outlier that skews the aggregate margin. When the sides have played at Suncorp in close contests, the Dolphins have been competitive.

Dolphins — 11 of 13 starters positive. Squad avg ±/G: +6.5. Highlights: Jeremy Marshall-King (hooker, +20.5, 4GP), Jack Bostock (centre, +22.0, 4GP), Isaiya Katoa (halfback, +6.4, 12GP), Jamayne Isaako (winger, +6.4, 12GP), Morgan Knowles (lock, +5.6, 11GP). Negatives: Francis Molo (prop, -5.4), Oryn Keeley (2nd row, -2.5).

Roosters — 8 positive of 11 with data (2 unknowns: Foley, Talau). Squad avg ±/G (data): +3.6. Highlights: Hugo Savala (five-eighth, +14.1, 9GP), Connor Watson (hooker, +6.7, 12GP), Siua Wong (2nd row, +6.9, 12GP), Daly Cherry-Evans (halfback, +6.1, 12GP). Negatives: Cody Ramsey (fullback, -0.5), Billy Smith (winger, -3.5), Egan Butcher (centre, -3.3).

JMK is the Dolphins' engine room. Jeremy Marshall-King is posting +20.5 ±/G across 4 games — an elite number that puts him among the best-performing players at any position this season. A dominant hooker controls the ruck speed and short-side options in a way that affects every set. Against a Roosters team that will need Watson to match him, this is the defining individual contest.

Bostock at centre is a structural advantage. Jack Bostock's +22.0 in 4 games is the kind of number you see when a player is finding consistent overlap. With Isaako outside him (+6.4) and Katoa feeding the edge (+6.4), the Dolphins' right side looks threatening.

Roosters' backline is the vulnerability. Ramsey (-0.5), Smith (-3.5), and Butcher (-3.3) form a backline where all three are on the wrong side of neutral. Add two unknown quantities in Foley and Talau and you're asking the Roosters' brilliant middle — Savala, Watson, Cherry-Evans — to carry a fragile outside structure.

The Roosters can compete through their middle. Savala (+14.1), Watson (+6.7), Cherry-Evans (+6.1), Crichton (+5.6), and Nat Butcher (+7.1 off bench) give them a quality spine and middle group that can generate field position. The question is whether that middle dominance translates to points when the finishing is weak.

The Predict model uses overall team PCS, which includes absent and resting players, and points to a competitive game. The named squad analysis tells a different story: the Dolphins hold a +2.9 ±/G per game advantage in their starting 13 over the Roosters' data-available starters, and the true Roosters gap is likely wider once Foley and Talau are factored in. At home at Suncorp (57% win rate), with two elite individual performers and a functional starting 13, the Dolphins are the play. Tip: Dolphins by 12.