Round 15 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Eels v Raiders

SavvyPlays · Saturday 13 June 2026 · CommBank Stadium · 5:30pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Eels n=14, Raiders n=15). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Eels

Metric

Raiders

20.3

Points For / G

18.7

30.9

Points Against / G

26.9

1,457m

Run Metres / G

1,572m

3.7

Tries / G

3.3

75.9%

Completion %

78.9%

4.1

Penalties Conceded / G

5.1

4.6

Six Agains / G

3.1

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Eels

Metric

Raiders

5-9-0#13

Season Record

#155-10-0

3-4-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games3-5-0 (A)

19.3Home · #13

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1219.6

28.0Home · #14

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #1429.5

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Eels

Metric

Raiders

7-7-0 (50%)

2026 Season — All

5-10-0 (33%)

3-4-0 (43%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

3-5-0 (38%)

4-3-0 (57%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

2-5-0 (29%)

Current Streak

18-20-0 (47%)

2025-26 — All

22-19-0 (54%)

9-10-0 (47%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

9-11-0 (45%)

9-10-0 (47%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

13-8-0 (62%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Eels

Metric

Raiders

6-7-0 (46%)

2026 Season — All

5-9-0 (36%)

2-4-0 (33%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

3-4-0 (43%)

4-3-0 (57%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

2-5-0 (29%)

Current Streak

14-23-0 (38%)

2025-26 — All

19-20-1 (49%)

5-13-0 (28%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-11-0 (42%)

9-10-0 (47%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

11-9-1 (55%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Eels

Metric

Raiders

9.1

1H Avg For

11.2

12.4

1H Avg Against

12.6

-3.3

1H Net

-1.4

100%

1H Win → Match Win

75%

11.0

2H Avg For

7.5

18.4

2H Avg Against

14.3

-7.4

2H Net

-6.9

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Eels

Metric

Raiders

108.8#17

Squad PCS

#9156.0

29.4#16

Spine PCS

#945.0

22.6#17

Forwards PCS

#438.9

49.6#15

Backs PCS

#765.0

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Eels

Metric

Raiders

6/14 (43%)

Scored first try — All games

9/15 (60%)

4/7 (57%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

5/8 (62%)

7/14 (50%)

Conceded first try — All games

6/15 (40%)

2/7 (29%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

3/8 (38%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

2 (H:0 A:2)

5 (H:3 A:2)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

6 (H:4 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

5 (H:1 A:4)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Eels

Metric

Raiders

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Eels

Metric

Raiders

0.517

Overall CI

0.592

0.549

Defensive CI

0.622

20.4

Margin SD

15.0

3.2

Disruption

1.5

78%

Best-17 %

85%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Eels — 78% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: -9.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Isaiah Iongi	Fullback	6	-10.7
2	Brian Kelly	Wing	11	-15.5
3	Jordan Samrani	Centre	5	-5.8
4	Sean Russell	Centre	11	-10.5
5	Josh Addo-Carr	Wing	12	-8.7
6	Joash Papalii	Five-Eighth	11	-8.7
7	Ronald Volkman	Halfback	8	-11.8
8	Luca Moretti	Prop	10	-5.7
9	Tallyn Da Silva	Hooker	13	-5.5
10	Jack Williams	Prop	13	-13.8
11	Kelma Tuilagi	Second Row	9	-7.3
12	Kitione Kautoga	Second Row	8	-13.0
13	Jack De Belin	Lock	10	-8.6
14	Dylan Walker	Interchange	13	-4.1
15	Sam Tuivaiti	Interchange	7	-2.3
16	Teancum Brown	Interchange	—	—
17	Harrison Edwards	Interchange	2	-2.0

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: A few rotational outs but the spine is intact. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Raiders — 85% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: -5.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Kaeo Weekes	Fullback	13	-7.5
2	Jed Stuart	Wing	7	-5.3
3	Sebastian Kris	Centre	11	-5.3
4	Matthew Timoko	Centre	8	-5.9
5	Xavier Savage	Wing	8	-11.1
6	Daine Laurie	Five-Eighth	6	-4.5
7	Ethan Sanders	Halfback	13	-7.5
8	Corey Horsburgh	Prop	13	-3.6
9	Tom Starling	Hooker	13	-3.0
10	Joseph Tapine	Prop	13	-6.5
11	Ata Mariota	Second Row	13	-2.7
12	Zac Hosking	Second Row	11	-4.3
13	Jayden Brailey	Lock	12	-6.8
14	Owen Pattie	Interchange	5	-2.0
15	Vena Patuki-Case	Interchange	—	—
16	Morgan Smithies	Interchange	13	-4.2
17	Chevy Stewart	Interchange	1	+0.0

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Senior squad mostly intact going into Round 15. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Eels — Recent Form

12Eels — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R14	Bulldogs	A	12-14	L	-2	+7.5	W	50.0	U
2026 R13	Knights	A	22-28	L	-6	+15.5	W	53.5	U
2026 R11	Storm	H	8-34	L	-26	+8.5	L	54.5	U
2026 R10	Cowboys	A	33-30	W	+3	+11.5	W	55.5	O
2026 R9	Warriors	H	14-36	L	-22	+6.5	L	52.5	U

Raiders — Recent Form

13Raiders — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R14	Roosters	H	0-26	L	-26	+3.5	L	49.5	U
2026 R13	Cowboys	H	26-12	W	+14	-3.5	W	53.5	U
2026 R12	Dolphins	H	22-30	L	-8	-2.5	L	48.5	O
2026 R10	Panthers	H	18-30	L	-12	+9.5	L	50.5	U
2026 R9	Titans	A	28-12	W	+16	+4.5	W	52.5	U

Eels — Try Scoring

14Eels — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
J.Addo-Carr	Wing	6	—	1	1	1	2	2	3 / 3
T.Da Silva	Interchange	5	—	—	0	2	2	1	3 / 2
S.Russell	Centre	4	2	—	2	0	0	2	1 / 3
J.Papalii	Five-Eighth	4	—	2	0	1	1	2	2 / 2
R.Volkman	Halfback	3	1	—	1	1	1	0	3 / 0
B.Kelly	Wing	3	1	—	3	0	0	0	0 / 3
J.Samrani	Centre	3	1	—	1	0	0	2	1 / 2
K.Tuilagi	Second Row	3	—	—	1	2	0	0	1 / 2
W.Penisini	Centre	3	—	—	0	1	1	1	3 / 0
D.Walker	Interchange	3	—	—	0	1	1	1	1 / 2

Raiders — Try Scoring

15Raiders — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
K.Weekes	Fullback	8	1	—	3	3	1	1	3 / 5
S.Tamale	Wing	7	2	1	2	2	2	1	4 / 3
X.Savage	Wing	5	—	—	1	0	3	1	2 / 3
S.Sasagi	Second Row	4	3	—	4	0	0	0	1 / 3
S.Kris	Centre	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	3 / 1
M.Timoko	Centre	4	—	—	0	2	1	1	1 / 3
E.Strange	Five-Eighth	4	—	—	0	1	1	2	2 / 2
H.Young	Second Row	3	1	—	1	2	0	0	1 / 2
C.Horsburgh	Prop	2	—	—	2	0	0	0	2 / 0
N.Martin	Second Row	2	—	—	1	0	1	0	0 / 2

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Raiders by 4

Lean

Win

Raiders -2.5

predicted Eels margin -4 vs line +2.5

ATS

Under 47.5

projected 46.8 · edge -0.7

Over / Under

Raiders Backs

HIGH · 2.17/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Eels (vs Raiders defence)
1	Backs	1.50	2.60	2.05 HIGH
2	Spine	1.00	1.60	1.30 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.43	0.93	0.68 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.79	0.27	0.53 LOW
Attacking Raiders (vs Eels defence)
1	Backs	1.33	3.00	2.17 HIGH
2	Spine	1.00	1.50	1.25 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.73	1.29	1.01 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.27	0.36	0.31 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Raiders Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.17/game (Raiders backs score 1.33/game; Eels concede to the backs at 3.00/game).

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.