Eels v Raiders

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Eels n=14, Raiders n=15). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

ATS = Against the Spread. A team "covers" when their result beats the handicap line set by the market. We show both the 2026 season-to-date record (sample size n=) and the last 30 games across seasons, so a sparse current season still leaves you with a meaningful baseline.

O/U = Over/Under on the total points line. "O" means the combined score went over the market total, "U" means it fell under. 2026 season-to-date shown alongside the last 30 games across seasons for context.

1H = first half, 2H = second half. Averages across the full 2026 season-to-date (every completed match — halves data is derived from play-by-play timeline data so coverage is complete for the modern era). "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Streaks are the count of consecutive games sharing the most recent result. A team on a 10-game ATS winning streak shows as W10. The season rows reset at the start of each year; the multi-season rows ignore that reset, so a streak that spans seasons stays intact.

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Try totals plus first-scorer and last-scorer counts (useful for first/last try-scorer betting markets). Q1-Q4 split: Q1 = 0-20 min H1, Q2 = 20-40 min H1, Q3 = 0-20 min H2, Q4 = 20-40 min H2.