Storm v Raiders
AAMI Park 79% Storm fortress. But Raiders lead H2H 3-2 and CI/DS -3.1 favours the visitors. Lean Storm by 8.
SavvyPlays · 21 June 2026 · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sunday 21 June · 4:05PM AEST
AAMI Park is one of the most reliable home fortresses in the NRL — Storm 79% there since 2020. Predict margin +8.6. But the Raiders have actually won the most recent meeting between these sides (R7 2026, 26-22 at GIO Stadium) and lead the H2H 3-2 over the last five.
Storm at 88% best-17 vs Raiders at 82%. The structural edge belongs to the home side, but the CI/DS combined of -3.1 sits in the Raiders' favour. Lean Storm.
SavvyPlays Tip — Lean
01Storm by 8
AAMI Park is Melbourne's engine room — 79% home record since 2020 and one of the toughest road trips in the competition. The Storm are at 88% best-17 with their senior spine and forward core intact. Predict margin lands at +8.6 in their favour.
The reasons this is a Lean rather than Strong: the Raiders won the most recent meeting (R7 2026, 26-22 at GIO Stadium) and lead the H2H 3-2 over the last five. CI/DS combined sits at -3.1 in the Raiders' favour. The Storm's consistency has also been volatile this season (CI 0.462).
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
AAMI Park is the Storm's fortress — 48-13 (79%) since 2020 as the home side. The Raiders' historical record at AAMI is below 50%. The venue tilt is real and substantial.
Despite that venue history, the Raiders have actually had the better of this fixture lately. They won R7 2026 (26-22 at home), R9 2025 (20-18 at Suncorp), and R26 2022 (28-20 at AAMI). The Storm's two wins came in 2024 (R17, 16-6) and 2023 (R24, 48-2 — the heaviest beating in the series).
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Raiders v Storm | 26-22 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R9 | Storm v Raiders | 18-20 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R17 | Storm v Raiders | 16-6 | Storm |
| 2023 | R24 | Storm v Raiders | 48-2 | Storm |
| 2022 | R26 | Storm v Raiders | 20-28 | Raiders |
Named Squads
03Storm — 88% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: +1.6
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | Fullback | 14 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | Wing | 14 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | Centre | 12 | +3.5 |
| 4 | Joe Chan | Centre | 12 | -4.0 |
| 5 | Moses Leo | Wing | 9 | +6.2 |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | Five-Eighth | 13 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | Halfback | 13 | +1.8 |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | Prop | 14 | +3.9 |
| 9 | Harry Grant | Hooker | 13 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Josh King | Prop | 14 | +1.7 |
| 11 | Cooper Clarke | Second Row | 14 | -3.9 |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | Second Row | 8 | +16.8 |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | Lock | 11 | -4.9 |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | Interchange | 3 | -8.0 |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | Interchange | 10 | -8.2 |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | Interchange | 5 | -1.2 |
| 17 | Josiah Pahulu | Interchange | — | — |
Out: A few rotational outs but the senior spine and forward pack are intact.
Named Squads
04Raiders — 82% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: -6.3
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | Fullback | 14 | -7.2 |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | Wing | 11 | -4.3 |
| 3 | Sebastian Kris | Centre | 12 | -5.1 |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | Centre | 9 | -5.6 |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | Wing | 9 | -10.2 |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | Five-Eighth | 11 | -9.6 |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | Halfback | 14 | -6.6 |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | Prop | 14 | -4.4 |
| 9 | Tom Starling | Hooker | 14 | -3.9 |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | Prop | 14 | -6.4 |
| 11 | Hudson Young | Second Row | 10 | -8.7 |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | Second Row | 12 | -4.2 |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | Lock | 13 | -6.0 |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | Interchange | 6 | +0.3 |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | Interchange | 14 | -2.7 |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | Interchange | 14 | -3.6 |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | Interchange | 7 | -4.3 |
Out: Some availability noise but the side has shown form in 2026 — Raiders lead the H2H 3-2 in the last five.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
AAMI Park is the case for Storm. The Storm's 79% home record at AAMI Park since 2020 is one of the strongest home-venue advantages in the NRL. Travel toll on visitors, vocal crowd, and the Storm's systems all play into the venue figure.
Raiders own the recent series. The Raiders have won three of the last five meetings and the most recent one was a 26-22 win at home in R7 2026. The Storm's two wins in the run included a 48-2 demolition in 2023 — and a 10-point win at AAMI in 2024.
CI/DS in the Raiders' favour. Combined CI/DS net is -3.1 — the Storm have been more disrupted and less consistent in 2026 than the Raiders, which surprises given the Raiders' 5-9 ladder position. The Storm's CI of 0.462 means they swing between top and bottom performances.
Look for the Storm's response. The Storm losing the R7 fixture earlier this season means they will know the matchup well. Expect a fixed defensive scheme around the Raiders' forwards and a kicking game that pushes them to the corners.
Predict has the Storm by 8 and the venue history backs that up. But the Raiders won the most recent meeting, lead the H2H 3-2 in the last five, and have the small CI/DS edge. The Storm's volatility (CI 0.462) means their floor is lower than the model suggests. The Storm should win, but not Strong.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Predict margin +8.6 — the venue tilt and the structural quality gap show through. But the recent series, the disruption profile, and the Storm's own consistency issues keep this a Lean tip.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. CI/DS measures consistency-weighted disruption. All figures accurate as of R16 teamlist announcement, 19 June 2026.
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