Round 16 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Wests Tigers v Dolphins

Dolphins DS 13.2 with Katoa, Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo out — but the named Dolphins squad is still +18 ±/G clear of the Tigers. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.

SavvyPlays · 20 June 2026 · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney · Saturday 20 June · 3:00PM AEST

A Saturday afternoon in Campbelltown with the Dolphins arriving disrupted and the Tigers fielding their first-choice spine. On paper the Tigers have the disruption advantage — Dolphins DS 13.2 with Katoa, Tabuai-Fidow, Cobbo, Plath and Flegler all out. But the named Dolphins squad is still vastly higher quality top to bottom.

Dolphins starters average +10.8 ±/G; Tigers starters -7.5. That 18-point per-game gap is the second largest of the round. Bostock (+25.2), Marshall-King (+24.0) and Fuller (+18.0) carry the rebuilt Dolphins outfit. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Dolphins by 10

Strong tip on the Dolphins by 10. The Tigers do hold the disruption advantage — the Dolphins are without their first-choice halfback (Katoa, NEW out), fullback (Tabuai-Fidow), key winger Cobbo, plus forwards Plath and Flegler. CI/DS net of +4.9 in the Tigers' favour. But the named Dolphins are still loaded. Bostock at fullback is a +25.2 ±/G player; Marshall-King at hooker is +24.0; Fuller +18.0. The Tigers' starters average -7.5 per game.

The 18-point ±/G gap across the starting 13s is the second largest of any R16 fixture. Even the best disruption story can't close that gap.

-10.8

Predict Margin

-7.5

Tigers Squad ±/G

+10.8

Dolphins Squad ±/G

+18.3

Squad ±/G Gap

13.2

Dolphins DS

+4.9

CI/DS Combined

7-6

Tigers Record

8-5

Dolphins Record

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

The Tigers have struggled at Campbelltown Sports Stadium — just 4 wins in their last 20 home games here (20%). It is one of the lowest winning percentages at any current NRL home venue. The Dolphins have never played here, so the venue is genuinely unfamiliar to them.

H2H is even at 2-2 across the four meetings since the Dolphins entered the competition. The Tigers won the most recent encounter 30-18 in R3 2025 at Kayo Stadium, but the previous two meetings in 2024 both went to the Dolphins.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2025	R3	Dolphins v Wests Tigers	18-30	Wests Tigers
2024	R11	Wests Tigers v Dolphins	12-24	Dolphins
2024	R5	Dolphins v Wests Tigers	26-16	Dolphins
2023	R25	Wests Tigers v Dolphins	24-23	Wests Tigers

Named Squads

03Wests Tigers — Squad avg ±/G: -7.5

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Jahream Bula	Fullback	10	+2.1
2	Sunia Turuva	Wing	13	-5.4
3	Taylan May	Centre	3	-19.3
4	Patrick Herbert	Centre	4	-11.8
5	Starford To'a	Wing	4	-3.8
6	Jarome Luai	Five-Eighth	10	-10.6
7	Jock Madden	Halfback	10	-9.7
8	Terrell May	Prop	4	-18.5
9	Apisai Koroisau	Hooker	9	+6.2
10	Fonua Pole	Prop	13	-5.4
11	Tony Sukkar	Second Row	2	-9.0
12	Sione Fainu	Second Row	4	-6.0
13	Alex Seyfarth	Lock	12	-5.9
14	Josese Lanyon	Interchange	—	—
15	Bunty Afoa	Interchange	2	-4.0
16	Mavrik Geyer	Interchange	2	-34.0
17	Charlie Murray	Interchange	1	-68.0

Out: A short bench limits rotation options; key creative starters all named.

Named Squads

04Dolphins — DS 13.2 — Squad avg ±/G: +10.8

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Trai Fuller	Fullback	3	+18.0
2	Jamayne Isaako	Wing	13	+8.8
3	Jack Bostock	Centre	5	+25.2
4	Herbie Farnworth	Centre	12	+8.9
5	Tevita Naufahu	Wing	3	+15.3
6	Kodi Nikorima	Five-Eighth	9	+7.7
8	Felise Kaufusi	Prop	12	+3.9
9	Jeremy Marshall-King	Hooker	5	+24.0
10	Francis Molo	Prop	9	-3.4
11	Connelly Lemuelu	Second Row	13	+8.4
12	Oryn Keeley	Second Row	5	+5.6
13	Morgan Knowles	Lock	12	+6.7
14	Bradley Schneider	Halfback	9	+7.8
15	Kurt Donoghoe	Interchange	6	+8.3
16	Tom Gilbert	Interchange	13	+4.4
17	Ray Stone	Interchange	12	+8.2

Out: Isaiya Katoa (halfback, NEW out), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (fullback), Jamayne Isaako (fullback), Brenko Lee, Felise Kaufusi (multiple weeks). Bostock and Marshall-King carry the rebuilt spine.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

The Tigers' disruption advantage is real. Katoa's late withdrawal is the highest-quality out of the round — a starting NRL halfback. Combined with the medium-term losses of Tabuai-Fidow, Cobbo, Plath and Flegler, the Dolphins' Disruption Score is 13.2 — the highest of the R16 fixtures. Net CI/DS sits +4.9 in the Tigers' favour.

But Dolphins depth is absurd. The rebuilt Dolphins still field Bostock (+25.2 fullback), Marshall-King (+24.0 hooker) and Fuller (+18.0). The starting forward pack contains some of the highest-rated middles in the competition by ±/G. Even the bench rolls into double-digit positive contributions.

The Tigers' problem is the starting 13. Tigers starters average -7.5 per game — a function of a roster still in transition and middle forwards leaking metres at a high rate. The creative spine of Galvin and the halves combination has shown flashes but lacks the consistent ±/G uplift the Dolphins are sending out.

Galvin against a rookie halfback. With Katoa out, the Dolphins' halfback role is filled by their next-in-line — a structural step down. If the Tigers can dominate the kicking game with Galvin, this becomes closer than the squad gap suggests. That's the upside scenario.

Why Strong, Not Lean

The disruption case for the Tigers is real — Dolphins DS 13.2, CI/DS +4.9. But the named-squad quality gap of 18 points per game across the starting 13 is too large to give back. The Tigers would need both the disruption to bite hard AND the venue history to hold AND Galvin to win the kicking duel. Too many things have to go right.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

Predict margin -10.8. The model already accounts for the Dolphins' outs and still backs them by double figures. The Tigers would need either a genuine fortress at Campbelltown or a step-change in middle-forward output to turn this into a contest.

7-6