Round 17 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Eels v Rabbitohs

Rabbitohs 4-1 H2H with a three-game streak. Squad ±/G gap +12.7 per game. Strong tip: Rabbitohs by 8.

SavvyPlays · 25 June 2026 · CommBank Stadium, Parramatta · Thursday 25 June · 7:50PM AEST

The Rabbitohs head west to CommBank with a 4-1 H2H over their last five — including the three most recent meetings — and the wider per-game quality gap in the round's opening fixture. Eels starters average -7.3 ±/G, Rabbitohs starters +5.4 — a 12.7-point per-game gap.

Mitchell Moses returns for the Eels but his 2026 ±/G of -13.1 across 11 games is the lowest of any starting halfback in the round. With Parramatta still at 65% Best 17 and South Sydney 60% winners at CommBank historically, the model lands at Predict -3.1 and the call sits comfortably in Strong: Rabbitohs by 8.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Rabbitohs by 8

Three reasons this is a Strong tip. First, the Rabbitohs have won four of the last five against the Eels, including all three of the most recent meetings. Second, the squad-quality gap: Eels starters average -7.3 ±/G per game against the Rabbitohs' +5.4, a 12.7-point gap. Third, the Rabbitohs have won 8 of 15 games (60%) as the away side at CommBank Stadium across the historical sample.

Mitchell Moses returns at halfback, which is meaningful on paper. But his 2026 ±/G of -13.1 across 11 games is the worst figure of any starting halfback in the round — his presence does not lift the starting 13 average meaningfully. Predict margin -3.1 sits at the edge of Lean, but the H2H streak, the per-game gap and the venue lean all push the read into Strong.

-3.1

Predict Margin

-7.3

Eels Squad ±/G

+5.4

Rabbitohs Squad ±/G

+12.7

Squad ±/G Gap

65%

Eels Best 17

1-4

H2H Last 5

60% W

Rabbitohs @ CommBank

-13.1

Moses 2026 ±/G

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

CommBank Stadium is Parramatta's ground but has not been a fortress in recent seasons — a 5-9 record this year speaks to that. Souths travel here well: 8 wins, 7 losses as the visiting side historically, a 60% road record against a venue average where most teams hover around 40%.

The Rabbitohs have won the last three meetings outright: 20-16 at Allianz in R24 2025, 32-16 at CommBank in R18 2024, and 42-26 at Accor in R12 2024. The Eels' one win in the last five was a 36-16 result at Allianz in R12 2023 — the only positive data point against the streak.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2025	R24	Rabbitohs v Eels	20-16	Rabbitohs
2024	R18	Eels v Rabbitohs	16-32	Rabbitohs
2024	R12	Rabbitohs v Eels	42-26	Rabbitohs
2023	R12	Rabbitohs v Eels	16-36	Eels
2022	R22	Eels v Rabbitohs	0-26	Rabbitohs

Named Squads

03Eels — 65% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: -8.9

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Isaiah Iongi	Fullback	7	-8.7
2	Brian Kelly	Wing	12	-13.9
3	Jordan Samrani	Centre	6	-4.3
4	Sean Russell	Centre	12	-9.4
5	Josh Addo-Carr	Wing	13	-7.8
6	Ronald Volkman	Five-Eighth	9	-10.1
7	Mitchell Moses	Halfback	11	-13.1
8	Luca Moretti	Prop	11	-4.8
9	Tallyn Da Silva	Hooker	14	-5.5
10	Jack Williams	Prop	14	-11.8
11	Kelma Tuilagi	Second Row	10	-6.3
12	Kitione Kautoga	Second Row	9	-11.2
13	Jack De Belin	Lock	11	-8.5
14	Dylan Walker	Interchange	14	-3.0
15	Sam Tuivaiti	Interchange	8	-0.6
16	Teancum Brown	Interchange	—	—
17	Harrison Edwards	Interchange	3	-2.7

Out: Spine remains patched together; Moses returns but recent form weighs heavily.

Named Squads

04Rabbitohs — Squad avg ±/G: +5.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Jye Gray	Fullback	10	+5.6
2	Alex Johnston	Wing	12	+9.0
3	Latrell Siegwalt	Centre	3	+5.3
4	Tallis Duncan	Centre	13	+6.6
5	Edward Kosi	Wing	4	+4.5
6	Cody Walker	Five-Eighth	13	+6.6
7	Ashton Ward	Halfback	6	+4.7
8	Tevita Tatola	Prop	13	+4.2
9	Brandon Smith	Hooker	5	+8.0
10	Keaon Koloamatangi	Prop	13	+5.1
11	David Fifita	Second Row	7	+1.4
12	Euan Aitken	Second Row	9	+5.8
13	Cameron Murray	Lock	11	+5.5
14	Lachlan Hubner	Interchange	12	+7.0
15	Jamie Humphreys	Interchange	8	+8.8
16	Liam Le Blanc	Interchange	2	+5.0
17	John Radel	Interchange	—	—

Out: Senior squad close to full strength for the road trip across Sydney.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

Moses returns but does not fix the spine. Mitchell Moses is back at halfback after the recent layoff, and the Eels do need creative leadership. But his 2026 sample sits at -13.1 ±/G across 11 games — a function of the team around him as much as his own form. He lifts the halves combination on paper but not the 13 average.

Eels starters underwater. The Eels' named starting 13 averages -7.3 ±/G per game. Outside Moses, the spine of Iongi (-8.7), Volkman (-10.1) and Da Silva (-5.5) has been underwater all year, and the edge of Kelly (-13.9) and Addo-Carr (-7.8) has not provided enough attacking lift to offset the middle.

Rabbitohs at +5.4. South Sydney's starting 13 sits at +5.4 ±/G per game — a 12.7-point gap against the home side. The road trip is short and the venue record (8-7 as visitors at CommBank) is one of the better away records anywhere in the comp.

CommBank not the fortress it was. Eels at 65% Best 17 lose the argument that the named squad is anywhere near optimal. The H2H trend lines up with the per-game gap and the venue lean — there is no meaningful counter-signal here.

Moses Return

Mitchell Moses returns at halfback but his 2026 ±/G of -13.1 across 11 games is the worst of any starting halfback in the round. His presence lifts the playmaking ceiling but does not move the squad-quality dial.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

Predict margin -3.1 — a Lean by the raw number, but pushed into Strong by the H2H streak (3 in a row, 4 of 5), the Rabbitohs' road record at CommBank (60% W as visitors), and the 12.7-point per-game gap on starting 13 ±/G. The tip is Rabbitohs by 8.

5-9

Eels Record

7-6

Rabbitohs Record

65%