Sea Eagles v Storm

Two signals lean the Sea Eagles' way without quite carrying a Strong tip. First, the venue. Brookvale is a 63% home win record over the recent sample — a genuine fortress, and the Storm have not won at 4 Pines since 2023. Second, the Storm lose Jahrome Hughes at halfback. Tyran Wishart steps in at +1.1 ±/G in a smaller sample. Disruption Score 4.5 against the Storm.

Squad starters: Sea Eagles +5.6 ±/G against Storm +0.2 — a 5.4-point per-game gap with the home side. H2H last five sits Sea Eagles 3-2. Predict +3.3. The Storm are volatile (CI 0.467, second-most variable side in the comp) which is what keeps the tip at Lean rather than Strong — they can produce an outlier performance from anywhere.

4 Pines Park is the Sea Eagles' fortress — 63% home wins on the recent sample. The Storm have not won at Brookvale since 2023 (R17, 24-6) and lost both visits to the ground since.

H2H last five: Sea Eagles 3-2. The wins are spread — a 24-20 home result in R12 2024 at 4 Pines, a 18-8 home result in R7 2023 at the same ground, and an 18-16 win at AAMI Park in R20 2025. The Storm demolition (48-24 at Brookvale in R5 2025) is the one local result where the visitors travelled well — and it came against a depleted Sea Eagles side.

Hughes out — Wishart in. Jahrome Hughes is the Storm's halfback and has been a season-long fixture. Tyran Wishart (+1.1 ±/G across a smaller sample) takes the No. 7. The replacement is competent but the playmaking ceiling drops, especially against a Sea Eagles forward pack that has held up well at home all year. Disruption Score 4.5.

Sea Eagles +5.6 starters. The Sea Eagles' starting 13 averages +5.6 ±/G per game — comfortably positive, and the spine is intact even with Garrick and Hetherington missing. The 5.4-point per-game gap against a Hughes-less Storm starting 13 is the basis for the lean.

Storm CI 0.467 — second-most variable in the comp. The Storm's Consistency Index sits at 0.467, the second-highest variance in the NRL. That means they can deliver an outlier performance from any starting position — exactly the reason the call stays at Lean rather than Strong even with Hughes out.

Brookvale is the lever. The Sea Eagles' 63% home record at 4 Pines and a 2-1 H2H record at the ground over the last five tilts the venue signal in their favour. With Hughes out, the disruption signal lines up with it.

Predict +3.3 with the Sea Eagles favoured. CI/DS edge +3.6, the venue lean and the H2H 3-2 over the last five all support the call. The Storm's consistency-index volatility (0.467, second-most variable side in the NRL) is the reason the tip stays at Lean rather than crossing into Strong territory.