Knights v Dolphins
Knights 5-0 H2H — longest active streak in the matchup. Dolphins DS 18.3 but remaining squad still +7.8. Lean tip: Knights by 6.
SavvyPlays · 2 July 2026 · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sunday 5 July · 4:05PM AEST
The Dolphins name a Disruption Score of 18.3 — the highest of the round. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Isaiya Katoa, Tom Flegler, Kurt Donoghoe rotations, and Jack Bostock all unavailable in one week. That is a lot of quality to lose. And yet — the remaining Dolphins starting 13 still averages +7.8 ±/G, higher than the Knights' starting 13 (+2.4). The depth is extraordinary.
The counter-signals for the Knights: 5-0 H2H over the last five meetings — the longest active streak in this exact matchup — a 33% Dolphins win rate at McDonald Jones historically, and a CI/DS edge of +7.6 to the home side. The model says Dolphins -9.2, but H2H + venue + CI/DS all point the other way. Lean Knights by 6 — a genuine model-override tip.
SavvyPlays Tip — Lean
01Knights by 6
Three signals push the tip toward the Knights against the model. First, the H2H: Knights 5-0 over the last five meetings, the longest active streak in this exact fixture. Every meeting since R3 2023 has gone the Knights' way, including a 26-20 win at HBF Park in R16 2025 and a 26-12 result here at McDonald Jones in R2 2025.
Second, the venue: the Dolphins have won 33% of their visits to McDonald Jones. Third, the CI/DS edge: +7.6 to the Knights. The Dolphins name a Disruption Score of 18.3 — the largest of the round — with Tabuai-Fidow, Katoa, Flegler and Bostock all missing.
The counter is real. The model still has Dolphins -9.2 because their remaining starting 13 averages +7.8 ±/G — better than the Knights' +2.4. That is why this is Lean, not Strong. The Dolphins have exceptional depth. But H2H, venue and CI/DS combine to override the model call.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
McDonald Jones Stadium has been a genuine Dolphins problem venue — the Dolphins hold a 33% win rate here across their short history. The Knights have won every fixture at McDonald Jones against the Dolphins in the current 5-0 run, including the R2 2025 result 26-12.
The H2H streak is the largest active in this exact matchup. Five straight to the Knights: R16 2025 (26-20 at HBF Park), R2 2025 (26-12 at McDonald Jones), R27 2024 (14-6 at McDonald Jones), R8 2024 (18-14 at Suncorp) and R23 2023 (30-28 at Optus Stadium). The last Dolphins win in this fixture was R3 2023 (36-20). Five straight matchups, five straight Knights wins — including two on Dolphins home grounds.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R16 | Dolphins v Knights | 20-26 | Knights |
| 2025 | R2 | Knights v Dolphins | 26-12 | Knights |
| 2024 | R27 | Knights v Dolphins | 14-6 | Knights |
| 2024 | R8 | Dolphins v Knights | 14-18 | Knights |
| 2023 | R23 | Dolphins v Knights | 28-30 | Knights |
Named Squads
03Knights — Squad avg ±/G: +2.4
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Sharpe | Fullback | 13 | +3.4 |
| 2 | Dominic Young | Wing | 15 | +2.7 |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | Centre | 15 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Fletcher Hunt | Centre | 11 | -4.0 |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | Wing | 14 | +5.1 |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | Five-Eighth | 11 | -2.0 |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | Halfback | 11 | +4.9 |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | Prop | 15 | +2.7 |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | Hooker | 15 | +2.1 |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | Prop | 14 | +2.1 |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | Second Row | 12 | +6.7 |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | Second Row | 14 | +1.4 |
| 13 | Mat Croker | Lock | 15 | +3.7 |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | Interchange | 10 | +0.6 |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | Interchange | 13 | +1.8 |
| 16 | Cody Hopwood | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | Interchange | 7 | +1.4 |
Out: Near-full-strength Knights squad. Dylan Brown (+4.9) at halfback and Fletcher Sharpe (+3.4) at fullback.
Named Squads
04Dolphins — DS 18.3 — Squad avg ±/G: +7.8
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | Fullback | 4 | +17.0 |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | Wing | 15 | +8.7 |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | Centre | 7 | -5.3 |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | Centre | 14 | +8.8 |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | Wing | 4 | +15.0 |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | Five-Eighth | 11 | +7.7 |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | Halfback | 10 | +7.4 |
| 8 | Felise Kaufusi | Prop | 13 | +4.1 |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | Hooker | 7 | +20.3 |
| 10 | Francis Molo | Prop | 11 | -3.0 |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | Second Row | 15 | +8.3 |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | Second Row | 14 | +6.9 |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | Lock | 14 | +6.0 |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | Interchange | 8 | +8.5 |
| 15 | Tom Gilbert | Interchange | 14 | +4.2 |
| 16 | Ray Stone | Interchange | 14 | +8.3 |
| 17 | Brian Pouniu | Interchange | — | — |
Out: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Isaiya Katoa, Tom Flegler, Kurt Donoghoe and Jack Bostock all unavailable — DS 18.3, the highest of the round. Farnworth (+8.8), Isaako (+8.7) and Marshall-King (+20.3 in a small sample) remain. Remaining starters still average +7.8 ±/G.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
Dolphins depth is extraordinary. DS 18.3 with Tabuai-Fidow, Katoa, Flegler, Bostock and rotations all out — and the remaining 13 still averages +7.8 ±/G. Herbie Farnworth (+8.8), Jamayne Isaako (+8.7), Connelly Lemuelu (+8.3) and Jeremy Marshall-King (+20.3 in a small sample) still start. This is why the model has them favoured despite the disruption.
Knights spine intact. Fletcher Sharpe (+3.4) at fullback, Dylan Brown (+4.9) at halfback, Sandon Smith at five-eighth, Phoenix Crossland at hooker. Dylan Lucas (+6.7) and Mat Croker (+3.7) provide reliable middle-forward output. Starters average +2.4 ±/G.
The venue lever matters here. McDonald Jones has been a genuine headache for the Dolphins — 33% win rate. Two of the five straight Knights H2H wins came at this venue (R2 2025, R27 2024) by scores of 26-12 and 14-6. The Knights have a genuine tactical advantage on this ground.
CI/DS +7.6 to the Knights. Consistency and disruption both favour the home side heavily this week. That is the primary reason we override the model call — the Dolphins are less predictable at 18.3 DS and the Knights are more consistent to boot. Lean Knights by 6.
The Knights have won five straight against the Dolphins dating back to R23 2023. Two of the five wins came at McDonald Jones. The venue lever, the H2H streak and the CI/DS edge together are what push this tip to Knights despite the model favouring the Dolphins.
This is a genuine model-override tip. Predict margin -9.2 with the Dolphins favoured, but the SavvyPlays call is Knights by 6. The confidence is Lean specifically because the Dolphins retain +7.8 ±/G on their remaining starters. Their depth is real.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Model reads Dolphins -9.2. We override to Knights by 6. Three factors drive the override: the 5-0 H2H (longest active streak in the fixture), the Dolphins' 33% record at McDonald Jones, and the CI/DS edge of +7.6 to the home side. The Dolphins' +7.8 remaining squad ±/G is why this stays a Lean rather than a Strong tip. Knights by 6.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Consistency Index (CI) and Disruption Score (DS) summarise team form variance and named-squad disruption respectively. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R18 teamlist announcement, 2 July 2026.
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