Panthers v Rabbitohs
Cleary, Yeo and Martin all out — DS 11.7. Panthers' remaining squad still averages +12.4 ±/G. Strong tip: Panthers by 10.
SavvyPlays · 2 July 2026 · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Friday 3 July · 8:00PM AEST
The Panthers lose Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin in one week — a Disruption Score of 11.7 against the named squad. Even without their three best players, the remaining starting 13 averages +12.4 ±/G, which would still be the strongest squad average in the NRL this round. Jack Cogger (+5.5) steps into the halves; Lindsay Smith (+11.7) covers at lock.
The Rabbitohs get Jack Wighton (+7.5) back at centre and field a middling squad at 65% Best 17. Their starters average +6.7 ±/G — a 5.7-point per-game gap in Penrith's favour. Panthers 3-2 H2H over the last five, including a 30-10 win here at CommBank in R20 2025. Strong tip: Panthers by 10.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Panthers by 10
Three signals combine for a Strong tip on the Panthers. First, even with Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin all unavailable — a Disruption Score of 11.7 — the remaining starting 13 still averages +12.4 ±/G. That is the strongest squad average of any team in the round. Depth like this is the reason Penrith are the class of the competition regardless of the sheet.
Second, the gap. Panthers starters +12.4 against Rabbitohs starters +6.7 — a 5.7-point per-game edge with the home side. Both teams sit at 65% Best 17, so the Rabbitohs cannot claim a squad-quality counter. Third, the H2H: Panthers 3-2 over the last five, with the most recent meeting a 30-10 win here at CommBank in R20 2025. Strong call: Panthers by 10.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
CommBank Stadium is the neutral-ish venue for this fixture — Panthers have been splitting home games between Penrith and CommBank in 2026 and they won convincingly here 30-10 against the Rabbitohs the last time this exact matchup landed at CommBank (R20 2025).
The Panthers hold a 3-2 edge over the last five meetings. The Rabbitohs' wins were the R4 2025 upset at Accor (28-18) and the R8 2023 game (20-18). The Panthers' three wins were all comfortable double-digit results — 30-10 (2025 R20), 34-12 (2024 R26) and 42-12 (2024 R9). Two of the last three meetings have been Panthers wins by 20 or more.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R20 | Panthers v Rabbitohs | 30-10 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R4 | Rabbitohs v Panthers | 28-18 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R26 | Panthers v Rabbitohs | 34-12 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R9 | Rabbitohs v Panthers | 12-42 | Panthers |
| 2023 | R8 | Rabbitohs v Panthers | 20-18 | Rabbitohs |
Named Squads
03Panthers — 65% Best 17 (DS 11.7) — Squad avg ±/G: +12.4
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | Fullback | 15 | +17.2 |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | Wing | 14 | +16.6 |
| 3 | Izack Tago | Centre | 10 | +8.6 |
| 4 | Paul Alamoti | Centre | 15 | +17.3 |
| 5 | Brian To'o | Wing | 13 | +19.8 |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | Five-Eighth | 15 | +17.2 |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | Halfback | 12 | +5.5 |
| 8 | Moses Leota | Prop | 15 | +10.1 |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | Hooker | 12 | +9.4 |
| 10 | Liam Henry | Prop | 6 | +12.0 |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | Second Row | 15 | +7.1 |
| 12 | Luke Garner | Second Row | 14 | +8.7 |
| 13 | Lindsay Smith | Lock | 15 | +11.7 |
| 14 | Billy Scott | Interchange | — | — |
| 15 | Kalani Leuluai-Going | Interchange | — | — |
| 16 | Billy Phillips | Interchange | 12 | +3.6 |
| 17 | Luron Patea | Interchange | 1 | +5.0 |
Out: Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin all unavailable. Jack Cogger (+5.5 ±/G) takes the halfback jersey; Lindsay Smith (+11.7) covers at lock.
Named Squads
04Rabbitohs — 65% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: +6.7
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | Fullback | 11 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Dayne Jennings | Wing | — | — |
| 3 | Latrell Siegwalt | Centre | 4 | +9.0 |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | Centre | 8 | +7.5 |
| 5 | Edward Kosi | Wing | 5 | +5.6 |
| 6 | Cody Walker | Five-Eighth | 14 | +7.4 |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | Halfback | 7 | +6.9 |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | Prop | 14 | +5.0 |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | Hooker | 6 | +9.0 |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | Prop | 14 | +6.0 |
| 11 | David Fifita | Second Row | 8 | +3.8 |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | Second Row | 14 | +7.6 |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | Lock | 13 | +6.8 |
| 14 | Jamie Humphreys | Interchange | 9 | +9.3 |
| 15 | Euan Aitken | Interchange | 10 | +7.2 |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | Interchange | 2 | +5.0 |
| 17 | John Radel | Interchange | — | — |
Out: Rabbitohs field a mid-strength squad. Jack Wighton (+7.5) returns at centre — the biggest positive lever for the visitors.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
The Panthers pass the depth test. Losing Cleary, Yeo and Martin together should be catastrophic. It is not — the remaining starters still average +12.4 ±/G, better than any full-strength squad named this round. That is what an ongoing dynasty looks like on paper.
Jack Cogger at halfback. Cogger's +5.5 ±/G is a significant downgrade from Cleary, but it is a functional number — meaningfully better than most fill-in halves league-wide. Blaize Talagi (+17.2) at five-eighth is the biggest carry-over from the first-choice spine.
Wighton returns for the visitors. Jack Wighton (+7.5) is back at centre. That is the single largest positive lever the Rabbitohs get this week and it lifts their edge play noticeably. Cody Walker (+7.4) and Brandon Smith (+9.0) round out a spine that is competent but not spectacular.
H2H context. Panthers 3-2 over the last five, but three of those Panthers wins were by 20+ points. When the Panthers get on top of this fixture they get on top hard. Even a diminished squad has the depth to do it again.
A Disruption Score of 11.7 against the named squad. Losing the halfback, the captain and the enforcer in one week is a genuine blow. The reason this stays a Strong tip is depth: the remaining starting 13 still averages +12.4 ±/G, higher than any full-strength squad in the round.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Predict margin +11.5 with the Panthers favoured. The Cleary/Yeo/Martin absences shave points off the ceiling but not enough to change the call — the depth advantage is too large. H2H, venue and quality gap all support the tip. Panthers by 10.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Disruption Score (DS) measures the quality-weighted impact of missing players. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R18 teamlist announcement, 2 July 2026.
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