Bulldogs v Raiders
Three straight H2H wins to the Bulldogs, and the form metrics — territory 1.45 v 0.87, completion 81% v 75% — all point the same way. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 4.
SavvyPlays · 10 July 2026 · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Saturday 11 July · 5:30PM AEST
Neither squad inspires on paper — the Bulldogs' full named squad averages -3.8 ±/G and the Raiders' -5.4, the only R19 matchup where both sides are negative. That pushes the form metrics to the front: the Bulldogs hold a territory index of 1.45 and an 81% completion rate against the Raiders' 0.87 and 75%. Field position and ball control both run one way.
The Bulldogs have also won the last three meetings — 14-10 in Canberra in R3 this season, 32-20 in 2025 and 22-18 in 2024. The model has the home side +4.1 and the CI/DS ledger is dead level at 0.0. The Raiders are structurally sound at 88% Best 17 and travel well — they win 58% of their games at Accor — which keeps this a Lean. Bulldogs by 4.
SavvyPlays Tip — Lean
01Bulldogs by 4
This is a form-metrics game. With both squads carrying negative ±/G averages (Bulldogs -3.8, Raiders -5.4), the separators are territory and ball control — and the Bulldogs dominate both. Their 1.45 territory index against the Raiders' 0.87 is the widest such gap in the round, and an 81% completion rate against 75% means the Raiders will spend long stretches defending their own end.
Add the head-to-head — three straight Bulldogs wins, including 14-10 in Canberra earlier this season — and the model's +4.1, and the home side gets the tip. It stays a Lean because the Raiders are the healthier squad at 88% Best 17, the CI/DS ledger is level, and Canberra's 58% record at Accor makes them awkward travellers to this exact venue. Bulldogs by 4.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
Accor Stadium is an unusual home ground: its size rewards kick-chase and field-position football — exactly the Bulldogs' profile this season. The caveat is that the Raiders handle the venue unusually well for a travelling side, winning 58% of their matches there.
The head-to-head has flipped. The Raiders took the 2023 and early-2024 meetings; since then it is three straight to the Bulldogs — 22-18 at home in 2024, 32-20 in Canberra in 2025, and a 14-10 arm-wrestle in Canberra in R3 this season. All three wins in the streak were by 12 or fewer: this fixture stays tight.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Raiders v Bulldogs | 10-14 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R10 | Raiders v Bulldogs | 20-32 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R22 | Bulldogs v Raiders | 22-18 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R11 | Raiders v Bulldogs | 24-20 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R25 | Raiders v Bulldogs | 36-24 | Raiders |
Named Squads
03Bulldogs — Squad avg ±/G: -2.5
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | Fullback | 12 | -7.0 |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | Wing | 11 | +0.9 |
| 3 | Matt Burton | Centre | 14 | -3.4 |
| 4 | Enari Tuala | Centre | 12 | -3.4 |
| 5 | Jethro Rinakama | Wing | 4 | +4.5 |
| 6 | Stephen Crichton | Five-Eighth | 11 | -6.0 |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | Halfback | 15 | -5.2 |
| 8 | Max King | Prop | 11 | -4.5 |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | Hooker | 13 | -1.8 |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | Prop | 10 | -4.3 |
| 11 | Josh Curran | Second Row | 9 | +3.3 |
| 12 | Jaeman Salmon | Second Row | 15 | -3.3 |
| 13 | Harry Hayes | Lock | 12 | -1.9 |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | Interchange | 13 | -2.8 |
| 15 | Alekolasimi Jones | Interchange | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Underhill | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Lipoi Hopoi | Interchange | 5 | -6.8 |
Out: Settled Bulldogs squad. Jethro Rinakama (+4.5) and Josh Curran (+3.3) are the only starters in positive ±/G territory.
Named Squads
04Raiders — 88% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: -5.9
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | Fullback | 16 | -7.2 |
| 2 | Sebastian Kris | Wing | 14 | -4.6 |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | Centre | 10 | -2.9 |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | Centre | 11 | -5.8 |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | Wing | 11 | -8.5 |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | Five-Eighth | 13 | -9.2 |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | Halfback | 16 | -6.7 |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | Prop | 16 | -4.5 |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | Hooker | 8 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | Prop | 16 | -6.8 |
| 11 | Hudson Young | Second Row | 12 | -8.4 |
| 12 | Noah Martin | Second Row | 8 | -8.9 |
| 13 | Zac Hosking | Lock | 14 | -4.6 |
| 14 | Tom Starling | Interchange | 16 | -4.6 |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | Interchange | 16 | -3.5 |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | Interchange | 12 | -7.8 |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | Interchange | 8 | -6.5 |
Out: Raiders at 88% Best 17 — structurally sound, but every starter bar Owen Pattie (+1.0) carries a negative ±/G.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
Two struggling attacks, one big difference: where the sets end. The Bulldogs' 1.45 territory index means they consistently win the field-position battle even when the scoreboard is tight; the Raiders' 0.87 means they are playing out of their own half. Over 80 minutes at a ground the size of Accor, that compounds.
The Bulldogs' stars are underperforming — Stephen Crichton (-6.0) and Lachlan Galvin (-5.2) both carry poor numbers — but the completion profile (81%) suggests a team grinding out position rather than leaking errors. Jethro Rinakama (+4.5) has been a bright spot since coming into the side.
The Raiders' sheet is uniformly red. Every starter bar hooker Owen Pattie (+1.0) is negative, with the spine — Kaeo Weekes (-7.2), Ethan Strange (-9.2), Ethan Sanders (-6.7) — carrying the worst of it. At 88% Best 17 this is close to their strongest available side; the numbers are the team, not the absences.
This is the only R19 matchup where both full squads average negative ±/G. In these games the territory and completion splits are the most reliable separators — and both sit emphatically with the Bulldogs (1.45 v 0.87, 81% v 75%).
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Predict margin +4.1 with the Bulldogs favoured. The three-game head-to-head streak and the territory/completion dominance carry the tip; the Raiders' squad health and solid Accor record keep the margin modest. Bulldogs by 4.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Disruption Score (DS) measures the quality-weighted impact of missing players. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R19 teamlist announcement, 10 July 2026.
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