Warriors v Dragons
Five Warriors return at the Mt Smart fortress against a 2-14 Dragons side with the worst squad numbers in the competition. Strong tip: Warriors by 20.
SavvyPlays · 15 July 2026 · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Saturday 18 July · 5:35PM AEST
The Warriors get five players back in one week — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Alofiana Khan-Pereira, Mitchell Barnett, Kurt Capewell and Leka Halasima all return — for a home game at Mt Smart, where they win 59.2%, against a Dragons side sitting at 2-14 for the season.
The numbers are as one-sided as any game this round: a PCS gap of +29.5, squad averages of +7.4 against -11.9 — a 19.3-point gap — a 4-1 head-to-head with three straight wins, and a model margin of +25.1. Every named Dragons player with game time this season carries a negative ±/G. Strong tip: Warriors by 20.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Warriors by 20
This is the largest model margin of the round at +25.1, and it is easy to see why. The Warriors are 11-5 and getting five players back at once; the Dragons are 2-14 and travelling to Auckland, where the Warriors win 59.2% of their matches. The PCS gap is +29.5 and the squad averages sit 19.3 points apart.
The Warriors have also owned the fixture recently — three straight wins and four of the last five, including 30-12 on the road earlier this season. The only question is the size of the margin, and mass returns can take a half to click. Strong tip: Warriors by 20.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
Mt Smart runs at 59.2% for the Warriors, and the trip to Auckland remains one of the least profitable in the game for struggling sides. The Dragons' last win in this fixture came at home in 2024.
Since then: 15-14 and 14-10 escapes in 2025, and a comfortable 30-12 Warriors win at the Dragons' place in Round 12 this season — three straight, with the visitors' last two attempts producing 26 points combined.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Dragons v Warriors | 12-30 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R24 | Warriors v Dragons | 14-10 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R10 | Dragons v Warriors | 14-15 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R7 | Dragons v Warriors | 30-12 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R26 | Warriors v Dragons | 18-6 | Warriors |
Named Squads
03Warriors — Squad avg ±/G: +7.4
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | Fullback | 15 | +11.7 |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | Wing | 15 | +10.8 |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | Centre | 12 | +15.8 |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | Centre | 11 | +9.6 |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | Wing | 8 | +9.5 |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | Five-Eighth | 13 | +12.8 |
| 7 | Maire Martin | Halfback | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | Prop | 13 | +7.7 |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | Hooker | 16 | +10.9 |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | Prop | 7 | +5.7 |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | Second Row | 6 | +15.7 |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | Second Row | 15 | +9.6 |
| 13 | Erin Clark | Lock | 16 | +8.2 |
| 14 | Sam Healey | Interchange | 14 | +2.7 |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | Interchange | 11 | +6.0 |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | Interchange | 15 | +8.5 |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | Interchange | 12 | +7.5 |
Out: No new outs — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Alofiana Khan-Pereira, Mitchell Barnett, Kurt Capewell and Leka Halasima all return this week.
Named Squads
04Dragons — Squad avg ±/G: -11.9
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | Fullback | 13 | -10.2 |
| 2 | Setu Tu | Wing | 14 | -14.2 |
| 3 | Mathew Feagai | Centre | 11 | -11.5 |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | Centre | 16 | -14.9 |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | Wing | 7 | -15.4 |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | Five-Eighth | 15 | -11.7 |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | Halfback | 13 | -9.0 |
| 8 | Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | Prop | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | Hooker | 16 | -12.2 |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | Prop | 15 | -10.7 |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | Second Row | 8 | -9.8 |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | Second Row | 16 | -13.4 |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | Lock | 12 | -12.6 |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | Interchange | 8 | -1.2 |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | Interchange | 13 | -8.2 |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | Interchange | 14 | -7.7 |
| 17 | Jacob Halangahu | Interchange | — | — |
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
The returning five transform an already strong squad. Capewell (+15.7) and Watene-Zelezniak (+10.8) slot straight into a side where Ali Leiataua (+15.8), Chanel Harris-Tavita (+12.8), Taine Tuaupiki (+11.7) and Wayde Egan (+10.9) are already producing elite numbers. Ten of the Warriors' named starters sit at +7.7 or better.
The Dragons' sheet is the bleakest in the competition. Their best starter with meaningful minutes is Kyle Flanagan at -9.0; Valentine Holmes (-14.9) and Tyrell Sloan (-15.4) carry the worst numbers among the backs. There is no positional group where they break even.
The one Warriors unknown is at halfback, where Maire Martin makes his first appearance of the season. Against this opponent, with this much strike around him, it is the softest possible debut assignment.
The Warriors' named squad averages +7.4 ±/G; the Dragons' averages -11.9. A 19.3-point spread between two full squads is among the largest we have measured this season — consistent with a 2-14 side visiting an 11-5 side at its fortress.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
The model margin is +25.1 — we take the Warriors and shade the number down only for the usual first-week cohesion tax on five simultaneous returns. PCS gap +29.5, squad gap 19.3, fortress at 59.2%, three straight in the fixture. Strong tip: Warriors by 20.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Disruption Score (DS) measures the quality-weighted impact of missing players. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R20 teamlist announcement, 15 July 2026.
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