Round 25 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Titans v Sharks

SavvyPlays · Sunday 23 August 2026 · Cbus Super Stadium · 2:00pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Titans n=21, Sharks n=21). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Titans

Metric

Sharks

WOODEN SPOON RACE

Motivation

TOP 4 BATTLE

Wins to Finals

19.7

Points For / G

28.8

27.0

Points Against / G

20.9

1,550m

Run Metres / G

1,601m

3.5

Tries / G

4.9

74.7%

Completion %

79.3%

3.9

Penalties Conceded / G

5.3

3.8

Six Agains / G

3.2

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Titans

Metric

Sharks

6-15-0#15

Season Record

#613-8-0

3-6-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games5-5-0 (A)

15.7Home · #17

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #726.2

28.4Home · #15

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #521.7

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Titans

Metric

Sharks

12-9-0 (57%)

2026 Season — All

12-9-0 (57%)

3-6-0 (33%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

9-3-0 (75%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

7-4-0 (64%)

Current Streak

22-23-0 (49%)

2025-26 — All

26-22-0 (54%)

9-12-0 (43%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-13-0 (46%)

13-11-0 (54%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

15-9-0 (62%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Titans

Metric

Sharks

7-14-0 (33%)

2026 Season — All

10-11-0 (48%)

1-8-0 (11%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

4-6-0 (40%)

6-6-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-5-0 (54%)

Current Streak

19-26-0 (42%)

2025-26 — All

21-26-1 (45%)

5-16-0 (24%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

9-14-1 (39%)

14-10-0 (58%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

12-12-0 (50%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Titans

Metric

Sharks

7.1

1H Avg For

14.4

12.6

1H Avg Against

11.7

-5.4

1H Net

+2.7

33%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

11.9

2H Avg For

12.3

12.9

2H Avg Against

11.8

-1.0

2H Net

+0.5

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Titans

Metric

Sharks

135.4#13 Δ -6.7

Squad PCS

#6 Δ +1.6174.4

37.9#12 Δ -2.7

Spine PCS

#2 Δ -0.251.9

33.6#12 Δ -0.3

Forwards PCS

#7 Δ +1.537.4

55.1#12 Δ -2.2

Backs PCS

#7 Δ +1.767.1

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Titans

Metric

Sharks

3/21 (14%)

Scored first try — All games

9/21 (43%)

1/9 (11%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

5/10 (50%)

17/21 (81%)

Conceded first try — All games

7/21 (33%)

8/9 (89%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

3/10 (30%)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Scored first via penalty goal

3 (H:2 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

2 (H:1 A:1)

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

2 (H:2 A:0)

2 (H:0 A:2)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

5 (H:2 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

2 (H:0 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

4 (H:3 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

10 (H:3 A:7)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

4 (H:3 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Titans

Metric

Sharks

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Titans

Metric

Sharks

0.554

Overall CI

0.499

0.600

Defensive CI

0.573

18.2

Margin SD

24.5

5.1

Disruption

6.1

86%

Best-17 %

88%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Titans — 86% Best 17 (DS 5.1) — Squad avg ±/G: -6.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Keano Kini	Fullback	21	-7.6
2	Jaylan De Groot	Wing	4	-2.0
3	Jojo Fifita	Centre	19	-7.6
4	AJ Brimson	Centre	19	-6.8
5	Phillip Sami	Wing	21	-7.3
6	Jayden Campbell	Five-Eighth	19	-5.8
7	Lachlan Ilias	Halfback	10	-7.8
8	Moeaki Fotuaika	Prop	21	-8.6
9	Oliver Pascoe	Hooker	13	-8.3
10	Tino Fa'asuamaleaui	Prop	18	-6.3
11	Arama Hau	Second Row	20	-6.7
12	Beau Fermor	Second Row	21	-7.6
13	Cooper Bai	Lock	20	-2.8
14	Kurtis Morrin	Interchange	19	-0.1
15	Klese Haas	Interchange	20	-2.0
16	Chris Randall	Interchange	18	-4.9
17	Bodhi Sharpley	Interchange	—	—

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Sam Verrills (new this round), Josh Patston (new this round). Long-term (2): Jaimin Jolliffe (21wk), Max Feagai (10wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Sharks — 88% Best 17 (DS 6.1) — Squad avg ±/G: +6.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	William Kennedy	Fullback	21	+7.9
2	Sione Katoa	Wing	14	+7.6
3	Mawene Hiroti	Centre	7	+0.6
4	KL Iro	Centre	18	+7.4
5	Ronaldo Mulitalo	Wing	12	+12.8
6	Niwhai Puru	Five-Eighth	3	+10.0
7	Nicho Hynes	Halfback	17	+9.1
8	Addin Fonua-Blake	Prop	18	+6.5
9	Blayke Brailey	Hooker	16	+6.9
10	Jesse Colquhoun	Prop	19	+2.9
11	Briton Nikora	Second Row	16	+3.2
12	Teig Wilton	Second Row	19	+6.8
13	Cameron McInnes	Lock	14	+4.6
14	Siosifa Talakai	Interchange	18	+2.7
15	Billy Burns	Interchange	20	+9.6
16	Oregon Kaufusi	Interchange	17	+2.0
17	Thomas Hazelton	Interchange	20	+2.2

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Braydon Trindall (new this round), Jesse Ramien (2wk absent). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Titans — Recent Form

12Titans — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R24	Knights	A	26-36	L	-10	+12.5	W	50.5	O
2026 R23	Cowboys	H	8-30	L	-22	+4.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R22	Warriors	H	6-42	L	-36	+4.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R21	Dragons	A	38-18	W	+20	+1.5	W	47.5	O
2026 R20	Sea Eagles	H	38-32	W	+6	+4.5	W	45.5	O

Sharks — Recent Form

13Sharks — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R24	Raiders	H	20-24	L	-4	-11.5	L	52.0	U
2026 R23	Dragons	A	16-24	L	-8	-17.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R22	Rabbitohs	H	32-16	W	+16	-14.5	W	51.5	U
2026 R21	Sea Eagles	A	48-12	W	+36	-3.5	W	46.5	O
2026 R20	Knights	H	20-18	W	+2	-8.5	L	44.0	U

Titans — Try Scoring

14Titans — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
P.Sami	Wing	14	—	1	2	3	3	6	8 / 6
J.Campbell	Five-Eighth	10	—	—	1	3	4	2	0 / 10
A.Hau	Interchange	7	1	1	1	2	1	3	4 / 3
J.Fifita	Centre	7	1	1	0	3	1	3	5 / 2
K.Morrin	Interchange	7	—	1	0	3	3	1	2 / 5
O.Pascoe	Hooker	4	1	—	2	1	1	0	3 / 1
B.Fermor	Second Row	4	—	—	0	1	2	1	1 / 3
S.Faeamani	Interchange	4	—	—	1	0	1	2	0 / 4
K.Kini	Fullback	3	—	2	0	0	0	3	0 / 3
A.Brimson	Centre	3	—	1	1	1	0	1	1 / 2

Sharks — Try Scoring

15Sharks — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
KL.Iro	Centre	12	—	1	2	2	4	4	4 / 8
S.Katoa	Wing	11	2	1	2	4	3	2	2 / 9
R.Mulitalo	Wing	10	1	—	1	4	2	3	6 / 4
W.Kennedy	Fullback	10	1	—	6	0	3	1	7 / 3
B.Trindall	Five-Eighth	9	2	2	2	3	2	2	8 / 1
T.Wilton	Second Row	8	3	—	3	2	2	1	6 / 2
N.Hynes	Halfback	7	—	1	0	3	1	3	4 / 3
J.Ramien	Centre	6	1	1	1	1	3	1	2 / 4
S.Talakai	Interchange	5	—	—	2	1	1	1	2 / 3
B.Burns	Interchange	5	—	—	0	5	0	0	3 / 2

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Sharks by 10

Lean · WOODEN SPOON RACE v TOP 4 BATTLE

Win

Sharks -6.5

predicted Titans margin -10 vs line +6.5

ATS

Under 49.5

projected 46.4 · edge -3.1

Over / Under

Sharks Backs

HIGH · 2.24/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Titans (vs Sharks defence)
1	Backs	1.29	2.10	1.69 HIGH
2	Spine	0.86	0.90	0.88 MODERATE
3	Interchange	1.00	0.10	0.55 MODERATE
4	Forwards	0.33	0.62	0.48 LOW
Attacking Sharks (vs Titans defence)
1	Backs	1.95	2.52	2.24 HIGH
2	Spine	1.38	1.33	1.36 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.76	0.81	0.79 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.81	0.19	0.50 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Sharks Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.24/game (Sharks backs score 1.95/game; Titans concede to the backs at 2.52/game).

Sharks chasing top-4 but missing key players. After consecutive upsets in R23 (Dragons) and R24 (Raiders), every eliminated-team matchup carries a confidence discount.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.