Elimination Final 1 — 2026 AFL FinalsAFL Analytics

Geelong v Carlton

Geelong (15–7) v Carlton (13–10). MCG not GMHBA. Squiggle 23–6. Lose = eliminated. Strong tip: Geelong by 10.

SavvyPlays · 2 Sep 2026 · MCG, Melbourne · Friday 4 September · 7:40PM AEST

Geelong finished 5th after an incredible 12–0 home season at GMHBA Stadium. But this game is at the MCG — where they’re far less dominant. Carlton won the wildcard by beating Melbourne by 19 and arrive with momentum. 23 of 29 models tip Geelong at 61.3%. Lose and you’re out.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Geelong by 10

Geelong’s home fortress was at GMHBA (12–0) but this game is at the MCG. Their away form (3–7) has been their Achilles heel all season. Carlton arrive with momentum after beating Melbourne by 19 in the wildcard. Their H2H record includes a 1-point win over Melbourne and a 76-point win over Brisbane in R21.

The key tension: Geelong’s quality (15–7) vs their venue vulnerability away from GMHBA. Carlton’s H2H includes a 1-point R18 win over Melbourne this season, showing they can win tight finals-style games.

23/29 at 61.3% with +10.2 margin. We’re at +10. Geelong’s overall quality tips it, but Carlton’s wildcard momentum makes this closer than the ladder suggests.

15–7

Geelong Season

13–10

Carlton Season

3–7

Geelong Away

W +19 v Melb

Carlton Wildcard

23/29 Geelong

Squiggle

61.3%

Confidence

Loser eliminated

Stakes

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (29 models). Fixture and times verified from afl.com.au. All figures verified as of 2 September 2026.