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Adelaide 14–5, 7 straight wins. Essendon 5–14. H2H Adelaide 4–1. 24/27 consensus. Strong tip: Adelaide by 12.

Gold Coast 7–2 at home, H2H 4–1. Melbourne 12–7 but 3–7 away. Squiggle 22/27. Lean tip: Gold Coast by 8.

Bottom two clash. Richmond 2–16. West Coast 5–14. Squiggle 17–10 WCE. Lean tip: West Coast by 3.

Carlton 4–1 in H2H. Brisbane 11–7. Both off losses. Squiggle split 15–12. Lean tip: Carlton by 4.

Port shocked Brisbane by 28 in R20. GWS 1–8 away. Squiggle 22/27 Port. Lean tip: Port Adelaide by 9.

Hawthorn 14–4, 9–1 at home. North 8–11, 4 straight losses, 2–7 away. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 15.

Sydney 15–4, 6–3 away. St Kilda 9–9. Squiggle 24/27. Strong tip: Sydney by 12.

Fremantle 17–2, 9–0 at home. Bulldogs 10–8. H2H Freo 4–1. Strong tip: Fremantle by 15.

Detroit Golf Club

Geelong 12–6 but 2–6 away. Collingwood 7–11. Squiggle 21–6. Lean tip: Geelong by 10.

On-field plus/minus for all 17 NRL clubs: the players who move the scoreboard most when they're on the park, and the ones quietly dragging it backwards.

TPC Twin Cities

Four straight to the Sharks, the round's widest PCS gap (+49.1) and Cronulla at 94% Best 17. Brookvale is a 63% Manly fortress, but the class gap is decisive. Strong tip: Sharks by 4.

St Kilda 5–0 in H2H. North on 3 straight losses. Squiggle 29/30 Saints. Strong tip: St Kilda by 12.

A coin-flip model line (Titans -0.9) between two strugglers. The Dragons' 64% Jubilee record, a 3-2 recent H2H and a +3.2 CI/DS edge tip a thin lean home. Lean tip: Dragons.

Brisbane 11–6 at the Gabba. Port Adelaide 5–12, 2–6 away. Unanimous 74.8%. Strong tip: Brisbane by 25.

Bulldogs 9–8. Richmond 2–15, worst in AFL. Unanimous 81.3%. Strong tip: Bulldogs by 30.

The Broncos own the H2H (4-1) and a 67% record in Townsville, but the model likes the Cowboys by 5.5 with a +11.7 PCS edge. CI/DS is level. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.

Canterbury own a three-game head-to-head streak, but the Warriors lead on ELO (+133), CI/DS (+3.5) and bench PCS (42.6 v 10.7). The 42% Accor record is the risk. Lean tip: Warriors by 9.

Sydney Derby. GWS 6–3 at home. Sydney 14–4, H2H 4–1. Squiggle 18–9. Lean tip: Sydney by 6.

Hawthorn 13–4, 8–1 at home. Essendon 4–14, 0–9 away. Unanimous. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 25.

Canberra are middling, but the Tigers have named a bottom-tier sheet at -10.7 squad ±/G. Edge Engine +3 Lean Home, model margin +15.4. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.

Carlton 9–8, 5-game home streak. Gold Coast 8–9, 1–7 away. 23/27 consensus. Strong tip: Carlton by 10.

Western Derby. Fremantle 16–2, 8–0 at home. West Coast 5–13, 1–8 away. Strong tip: Fremantle by 35.

The model says coin flip, but the Storm are at 59% Best 17 with Wishart and Toelau in the halves. With both sides disrupted, the CI/DS ledger (+3.3 Souths) breaks the tie. Lean tip: Rabbitohs.

Melbourne 8–1 at MCG. Geelong 10–0 at home but 2–5 away. Squiggle 18–9. Lean tip: Melbourne by 6.

Five straight to the Roosters, 75% for the visitors at McDonald Jones and a +10.0 model margin. The squads are close but the trends are one-way. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.

Five straight Panthers wins, a 22.5-point squad-average gap and a -24.6 PCS deficit for the Eels. The losing streak is real but the class gap is vast. Strong tip: Panthers by 18.

Adelaide 13–5, 6 straight wins, 8–2 at home. Collingwood 7–10, 3–5 away. Strong tip: Adelaide by 12.

Four of the last five and a 57% Suncorp record say Dolphins — but the 0-66 hangover and the worst Consistency Index in the NRL say tread carefully. Lean tip: Dolphins by 6.

The edge model's strongest away signal of the round: Manly wins 62% at Cbus, the Titans just 43% at home. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 14.

Two struggling sides, but the Tigers' 37% record at Accor and Koroisau's demotion to the reserves tip it. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.

Five Warriors return at the Mt Smart fortress against a 2-14 Dragons side with the worst squad numbers in the competition. Strong tip: Warriors by 20.

Five straight to Canberra in the fixture, but the model calls it a coin flip and the squad numbers favour Souths. Lean tip: Raiders by 2.

The Storm arrive without Munster and Hughes; the Roosters without Tedesco. The disruption ledger favours the home side. Lean tip: Roosters by 6.

Fresh off a 66-0 statement, the Sharks return to their 83% fortress against a Knights side losing two forwards. Strong tip: Sharks by 12.

The Broncos get everyone back and it still isn't enough on the numbers — PCS gap +31.3, ELO gap 306, H2H 4-1. Strong tip: Panthers by 20.

The NRL's strongest fortress (77%) against its worst bogey record (17%, avg margin -16.8). Strong tip: Storm by 18.

Brisbane 9–6, Gabba advantage. Essendon 3–14, 0–8 away. H2H Brisbane 4–1. Strong tip: Brisbane by 25.

Four straight H2H wins and the Brookvale fortress — but the Cowboys travel to this ground unusually well. Lean tip: Sea Eagles by 6.

Melbourne 9–6, 6–1 at MCG. Richmond 2–14. 87.9% confidence, +43.3 margin. Strong tip: Melbourne by 40.

Walker out, Ponga and Best back, and four straight Knights wins in the fixture. A model-override tip. Strong: Knights by 8.

West Coast 4–12, 1–7 away. Bulldogs 7–8. Unanimous 27/27, 74.4%. Strong tip: Bulldogs by 20.

Adelaide 11–5, 5 straight wins, 7–2 at home. Gold Coast 1–6 away. Unanimous. Strong tip: Adelaide by 18.

PCS gap +59.0, squad ±/G +0.2 v -8.7, and the Eels win just 29% at Allianz. Strong tip: Roosters by 18.

Carlton 5-game streak, 4–1 in H2H. Hawthorn 11–4. Squiggle 15–12. Lean tip: Carlton by 4.

Three straight H2H wins to the Bulldogs, and the form metrics — territory 1.45 v 0.87, completion 81% v 75% — all point the same way. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 4.

Dead split: Squiggle 14–13. Geelong 2–5 away. GWS 4–3 at home. Lean tip: GWS by 3.

Dolphins 3-1 in the fixture — all four prior meetings away. Now it comes to the Redcliffe fortress (59.5%). Lean tip: Dolphins by 6.

Port 4–12, 2–6 away. St Kilda 6–8. Unanimous 27/27, 73.2%. Strong tip: St Kilda by 20.

Koroisau out — Lanyon debuts at hooker. Squad ±/G gap of 14.0, the widest of the round. Strong tip: Warriors by 12.

Collingwood 4–1 in H2H but 6–9 overall. North 8–8. Squiggle 18–9. Lean tip: Collingwood by 4.

1st v 2nd. Fremantle 15–1, 7–0 at home. Sydney 13–3. Squiggle 22–5. Lean tip: Fremantle by 8.

Port 4–11, 2–6 at home. North 7–8. H2H North 4–1. Unanimous 27/27, 74.0%. Strong tip: North by 20.

Knights 5-0 H2H — longest active streak in the matchup. Dolphins DS 18.3 but remaining squad still +7.8. Lean tip: Knights by 6.

Essendon 2–14 but H2H 4–1 and just broke their losing streak. St Kilda 6–7 off a bye. Lean tip: St Kilda by 5.

Squad ±/G gap +17.2 to Manly — widest in R18. Sea Eagles field Faulalo, Fogarty and Trbojevic despite DS 9.9. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 12.

Richmond 2–13, worst in AFL. Carlton 7–7, 4 straight wins. Unanimous 27/27. Strong tip: Carlton by 20.

Broncos at 53% Best 17 for the third time this year. Squad PCS gap the widest in R18. Strong tip: Sharks by 10.

Luai out is a positive for the Tigers. Squad ±/G gap +10.6 to the visitors. Lean tip: Wests Tigers by 4.

Both 6–8. Gold Coast 5–2 at home. Collingwood 3–4 away. Squiggle 22–5. Lean tip: Gold Coast by 8.

Fremantle 14–1, best in the AFL. GWS 5–9 at Manuka Oval (not home fortress). Strong tip: Fremantle by 15.

Hawthorn 10–4 v Melbourne 9–5 in Launceston. Squiggle 22–5 Hawks. Lean tip: Hawthorn by 10.

Adelaide 10–5, 4 straight wins. West Coast 4–11. Unanimous 27/27. Strong tip: Adelaide by 20.

Cleary, Yeo and Martin all out — DS 11.7. Panthers' remaining squad still averages +12.4 ±/G. Strong tip: Panthers by 10.

Sydney 12–3, 7–1 at home. Bulldogs 7–7 off a bye. 26/27 consensus. Strong tip: Sydney by 15.

Fremantle 13–1, 6–0 at home. Gold Coast 1–5 away, 3 straight losses. Strong tip: Fremantle by 25.

Ponga returns at 94% Best 17. Tigers' spine reinforced with Doueihi and Koroisau. Lean tip: Knights by 6.

Essendon 1–13, 0–7 away. North Melbourne 5–3 at home. R3 result: North by 12. Strong tip: North Melbourne by 20.

Dragons 14% at GIO (worst venue bogey in the NRL). Raiders 4-1 H2H. PCS gap +49.5. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.

The Showdown. Adelaide 9–5, 3 straight wins. Port 4–10. Adelaide 4–1 in last 5 H2H. Strong tip: Adelaide by 15.

Hughes out for the Storm. Brookvale fortress at 63%. CI/DS edge +3.6 to the home side. Lean tip: Sea Eagles.

Cleary, To'o and Yeo all return. Squad ±/G gap +22.2 per game. Strong tip: Panthers by 15.

Richmond 2–12, worst in the AFL. Collingwood 4–1 in H2H. 87.4% confidence. Strong tip: Collingwood by 35.

Widest squad PCS gap of the round (+50.9). Dolphins 88% Best 17 vs Warriors 65%. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.

Carlton 5–0 in H2H, avg margin +70. West Coast 4–10. Squiggle 83.2% confidence. Strong tip: Carlton by 30.

Both Broncos halves out. Roosters 4-1 H2H. Squad ±/G gap +9.0. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.

Hawthorn 9–4, 6–1 at MCG. GWS 5–8, 1–6 away. Unanimous 29/29. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 20.

Bulldogs 4-1 H2H. Cbus venue bogey (3-10 historical). Squads identical at -5.5 ±/G. Lean tip: Bulldogs.

Rabbitohs 4-1 H2H with a three-game streak. Squad ±/G gap +12.7 per game. Strong tip: Rabbitohs by 8.

Defending premiers v the best record in the AFL. Squiggle split 17–12. 55.1% confidence. The Gabba factor tips it. Lean tip: Brisbane by 5.

Bulldogs 4–1 in H2H with avg margin +58. But coming off a 57-point loss. The regression question returns. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.

Full Roosters Origin contingent returns. Both teams 94% best-17. Sharks lead H2H 3-2. Predict margin +2.4 — Lean Roosters.

AAMI Park 79% Storm fortress. But Raiders lead H2H 3-2 and CI/DS -3.1 favours the visitors. Lean Storm by 8.

Warriors 4-game H2H streak. Mt Smart fortress 59%. Cowboys at 82% best-17 with Origin returners. Lean Warriors.

Richmond 2–11, worst in the AFL. North Melbourne 4–0 in H2H including 130–55 in R6. Strong tip: North Melbourne by 25.

Collingwood 5–0 in the last 5 H2H. Port Adelaide 4–9, 2–4 away. Strong tip: Collingwood by 20.

Sea Eagles 4-1 H2H. Tom Trbojevic returns. Squad ±/G gap +13.9 per game. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 8.

GWS 4–1 at home. Carlton 2–4 away. Unanimous 27/27 consensus. Strong tip: GWS by 15.

Panthers 5-0 H2H streak. 71% at Cbus. ELO gap 377. Cleary, To'o, Yeo on reserves. Strong tip: Panthers by 20.

Dolphins DS 13.2 with Katoa, Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo out — but the named Dolphins squad is still +18 ±/G clear of the Tigers. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.

Adelaide 4–9 but every model backs them. Melbourne 9–5 but 3–4 away. 28/28 Squiggle consensus for the Crows. Lean tip: Adelaide by 10.

The Raiders and Tigers were shut out. Storm survived the Knights by two. And the tipping tracker ticks to +7.4% ROI through eight rounds.

We tracked every minute of every player's on-field time across 100 NRL matches. The scoring margin while you're on the field doesn't lie.

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