All Previews / Reviews

The NRL's strongest fortress (77%) against its worst bogey record (17%, avg margin -16.8). Strong tip: Storm by 18.

Brisbane 9–6, Gabba advantage. Essendon 3–14, 0–8 away. H2H Brisbane 4–1. Strong tip: Brisbane by 25.

Four straight H2H wins and the Brookvale fortress — but the Cowboys travel to this ground unusually well. Lean tip: Sea Eagles by 6.

Melbourne 9–6, 6–1 at MCG. Richmond 2–14. 87.9% confidence, +43.3 margin. Strong tip: Melbourne by 40.

Walker out, Ponga and Best back, and four straight Knights wins in the fixture. A model-override tip. Strong: Knights by 8.

West Coast 4–12, 1–7 away. Bulldogs 7–8. Unanimous 27/27, 74.4%. Strong tip: Bulldogs by 20.

Adelaide 11–5, 5 straight wins, 7–2 at home. Gold Coast 1–6 away. Unanimous. Strong tip: Adelaide by 18.

Carlton 5-game streak, 4–1 in H2H. Hawthorn 11–4. Squiggle 15–12. Lean tip: Carlton by 4.

PCS gap +59.0, squad ±/G +0.2 v -8.7, and the Eels win just 29% at Allianz. Strong tip: Roosters by 18.

Three straight H2H wins to the Bulldogs, and the form metrics — territory 1.45 v 0.87, completion 81% v 75% — all point the same way. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 4.

Dead split: Squiggle 14–13. Geelong 2–5 away. GWS 4–3 at home. Lean tip: GWS by 3.

Dolphins 3-1 in the fixture — all four prior meetings away. Now it comes to the Redcliffe fortress (59.5%). Lean tip: Dolphins by 6.

Port 4–12, 2–6 away. St Kilda 6–8. Unanimous 27/27, 73.2%. Strong tip: St Kilda by 20.

Koroisau out — Lanyon debuts at hooker. Squad ±/G gap of 14.0, the widest of the round. Strong tip: Warriors by 12.

Collingwood 4–1 in H2H but 6–9 overall. North 8–8. Squiggle 18–9. Lean tip: Collingwood by 4.

The Renaissance Club

1st v 2nd. Fremantle 15–1, 7–0 at home. Sydney 13–3. Squiggle 22–5. Lean tip: Fremantle by 8.

TPC Deere Run · München Eichenried

Port 4–11, 2–6 at home. North 7–8. H2H North 4–1. Unanimous 27/27, 74.0%. Strong tip: North by 20.

Knights 5-0 H2H — longest active streak in the matchup. Dolphins DS 18.3 but remaining squad still +7.8. Lean tip: Knights by 6.

Essendon 2–14 but H2H 4–1 and just broke their losing streak. St Kilda 6–7 off a bye. Lean tip: St Kilda by 5.

Squad ±/G gap +17.2 to Manly — widest in R18. Sea Eagles field Faulalo, Fogarty and Trbojevic despite DS 9.9. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 12.

Richmond 2–13, worst in AFL. Carlton 7–7, 4 straight wins. Unanimous 27/27. Strong tip: Carlton by 20.

Broncos at 53% Best 17 for the third time this year. Squad PCS gap the widest in R18. Strong tip: Sharks by 10.

Luai out is a positive for the Tigers. Squad ±/G gap +10.6 to the visitors. Lean tip: Wests Tigers by 4.

Both 6–8. Gold Coast 5–2 at home. Collingwood 3–4 away. Squiggle 22–5. Lean tip: Gold Coast by 8.

Fremantle 14–1, best in the AFL. GWS 5–9 at Manuka Oval (not home fortress). Strong tip: Fremantle by 15.

Hawthorn 10–4 v Melbourne 9–5 in Launceston. Squiggle 22–5 Hawks. Lean tip: Hawthorn by 10.

Adelaide 10–5, 4 straight wins. West Coast 4–11. Unanimous 27/27. Strong tip: Adelaide by 20.

Cleary, Yeo and Martin all out — DS 11.7. Panthers' remaining squad still averages +12.4 ±/G. Strong tip: Panthers by 10.

Sydney 12–3, 7–1 at home. Bulldogs 7–7 off a bye. 26/27 consensus. Strong tip: Sydney by 15.

Fremantle 13–1, 6–0 at home. Gold Coast 1–5 away, 3 straight losses. Strong tip: Fremantle by 25.

Ponga returns at 94% Best 17. Tigers' spine reinforced with Doueihi and Koroisau. Lean tip: Knights by 6.

Essendon 1–13, 0–7 away. North Melbourne 5–3 at home. R3 result: North by 12. Strong tip: North Melbourne by 20.

Dragons 14% at GIO (worst venue bogey in the NRL). Raiders 4-1 H2H. PCS gap +49.5. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.

The Showdown. Adelaide 9–5, 3 straight wins. Port 4–10. Adelaide 4–1 in last 5 H2H. Strong tip: Adelaide by 15.

Hughes out for the Storm. Brookvale fortress at 63%. CI/DS edge +3.6 to the home side. Lean tip: Sea Eagles.

Cleary, To'o and Yeo all return. Squad ±/G gap +22.2 per game. Strong tip: Panthers by 15.

Richmond 2–12, worst in the AFL. Collingwood 4–1 in H2H. 87.4% confidence. Strong tip: Collingwood by 35.

Widest squad PCS gap of the round (+50.9). Dolphins 88% Best 17 vs Warriors 65%. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.

Carlton 5–0 in H2H, avg margin +70. West Coast 4–10. Squiggle 83.2% confidence. Strong tip: Carlton by 30.

Both Broncos halves out. Roosters 4-1 H2H. Squad ±/G gap +9.0. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.

Hawthorn 9–4, 6–1 at MCG. GWS 5–8, 1–6 away. Unanimous 29/29. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 20.

Bulldogs 4-1 H2H. Cbus venue bogey (3-10 historical). Squads identical at -5.5 ±/G. Lean tip: Bulldogs.

Rabbitohs 4-1 H2H with a three-game streak. Squad ±/G gap +12.7 per game. Strong tip: Rabbitohs by 8.

Defending premiers v the best record in the AFL. Squiggle split 17–12. 55.1% confidence. The Gabba factor tips it. Lean tip: Brisbane by 5.

Bulldogs 4–1 in H2H with avg margin +58. But coming off a 57-point loss. The regression question returns. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.

Full Roosters Origin contingent returns. Both teams 94% best-17. Sharks lead H2H 3-2. Predict margin +2.4 — Lean Roosters.

AAMI Park 79% Storm fortress. But Raiders lead H2H 3-2 and CI/DS -3.1 favours the visitors. Lean Storm by 8.

Warriors 4-game H2H streak. Mt Smart fortress 59%. Cowboys at 82% best-17 with Origin returners. Lean Warriors.

Richmond 2–11, worst in the AFL. North Melbourne 4–0 in H2H including 130–55 in R6. Strong tip: North Melbourne by 25.

Collingwood 5–0 in the last 5 H2H. Port Adelaide 4–9, 2–4 away. Strong tip: Collingwood by 20.

Sea Eagles 4-1 H2H. Tom Trbojevic returns. Squad ±/G gap +13.9 per game. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 8.

GWS 4–1 at home. Carlton 2–4 away. Unanimous 27/27 consensus. Strong tip: GWS by 15.

Panthers 5-0 H2H streak. 71% at Cbus. ELO gap 377. Cleary, To'o, Yeo on reserves. Strong tip: Panthers by 20.

Dolphins DS 13.2 with Katoa, Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo out — but the named Dolphins squad is still +18 ±/G clear of the Tigers. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.

Adelaide 4–9 but every model backs them. Melbourne 9–5 but 3–4 away. 28/28 Squiggle consensus for the Crows. Lean tip: Adelaide by 10.

Raiders' Spine PCS edge and the Eels' season-long consistency issues. Lean Raiders.

The Raiders and Tigers were shut out. Storm survived the Knights by two. And the tipping tracker ticks to +7.4% ROI through eight rounds.

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