Previews / Reviews
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Bulldogs 4–1 in H2H with avg margin +58. But coming off a 57-point loss. The regression question returns. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.
Full Roosters Origin contingent returns. Both teams 94% best-17. Sharks lead H2H 3-2. Predict margin +2.4 — Lean Roosters.
AAMI Park 79% Storm fortress. But Raiders lead H2H 3-2 and CI/DS -3.1 favours the visitors. Lean Storm by 8.
Warriors 4-game H2H streak. Mt Smart fortress 59%. Cowboys at 82% best-17 with Origin returners. Lean Warriors.
Richmond 2–11, worst in the AFL. North Melbourne 4–0 in H2H including 130–55 in R6. Strong tip: North Melbourne by 25.
Collingwood 5–0 in the last 5 H2H. Port Adelaide 4–9, 2–4 away. Strong tip: Collingwood by 20.
Sea Eagles 4-1 H2H. Tom Trbojevic returns. Squad ±/G gap +13.9 per game. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 8.
GWS 4–1 at home. Carlton 2–4 away. Unanimous 27/27 consensus. Strong tip: GWS by 15.
Panthers 5-0 H2H streak. 71% at Cbus. ELO gap 377. Cleary, To'o, Yeo on reserves. Strong tip: Panthers by 20.
Dolphins DS 13.2 with Katoa, Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo out — but the named Dolphins squad is still +18 ±/G clear of the Tigers. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.
Adelaide 4–9 but every model backs them. Melbourne 9–5 but 3–4 away. 28/28 Squiggle consensus for the Crows. Lean tip: Adelaide by 10.
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
156-player fieldRaiders' Spine PCS edge and the Eels' season-long consistency issues. Lean Raiders.
The Raiders and Tigers were shut out. Storm survived the Knights by two. And the tipping tracker ticks to +7.4% ROI through eight rounds.
We tracked every minute of every player's on-field time across 100 NRL matches. The scoring margin while you're on the field doesn't lie.
Not all NRL seasons start equal. We analysed every fixture in the 2026 draw to find out which teams the schedule helps — and which it quietly punishes.
Archive
Largest squad PCS gap of the round. Dragons 1-12 with worst ±/G in the NRL. Strong tip: Knights by 17.
R7 reverse: Hawthorn won by 49 at home. Now they travel to the Gold Coast where the Suns are 5–1. H2H at this venue overwhelmingly favours the Suns. Lean tip: Hawthorn by 8.
Fremantle 12–1. Geelong 1–4 away. The R1 rematch in Perth. The Dockers’ only loss was to this opponent. Strong tip: Fremantle by 15.
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley
GWS 4–1 at home, 1–5 away. St Kilda own the R2 result. H2H favours the Giants 4–2 but venue favours the Saints. Lean tip: St Kilda by 6.
Tigers 82% best-17 vs Titans 65%. Leichhardt fortress 62%. ELO gap 77 points. Predict +8.4 Tigers. Lean Wests Tigers.
Richmond 2–10. Brisbane the defending premiers. Four straight H2H wins to the Lions including 163–44 in 2024. 89.3% model confidence. Strong tip: Brisbane by 40.
Essendon’s 8-game losing streak meets their 3–2 H2H dominance. The form says Melbourne by 30. The history says be careful. Strong tip: Melbourne by 25.
The best team in the AFL travels to Adelaide. Sydney are 10–2, 7–0 at home, and scoring at will. Port are 4–8 and fading. Strong tip: Sydney by 20.
Eels ±/G -9.5, all 13 starters negative. Raiders H2H 4-1 streak. Predict -5.0 Raiders. Lean Raiders despite poor CommBank record (33%).
Both teams Origin-depleted. Warriors CI/DS edge +3.6. Sharks 64% at Go Media. Market shorter than model at $1.37. Lean Warriors.
Home team, away ground. North Melbourne are listed as home but play at Optus Stadium — where West Coast beat them by 17 ten weeks ago. Lean tip: North Melbourne by 8.
JMK (+20.5) and Bostock (+22.0) lead a quality Dolphins 13. Roosters backline posts three negative starters and two unknowns. Strong tip: Dolphins by 12.
Fortress Kardinia Park: Geelong 7–0 at home in 2026, avg margin +38. Gold Coast arrive off back-to-back losses. Strong tip: Geelong by 25.
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley
147-player fieldBroncos at 53% Best 17 — Walsh, Staggs, Haas and Carrigan all out. Squad PCS gap of +40.1. Strong tip: Rabbitohs by 10.
Five-game turnaround meets three-from-five H2H dominance. The Bulldogs’ composure in tight games vs Adelaide’s matchup pedigree. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.
A battle between two struggling sides. The signal here is disruption — the Eels are still missing both halves, their best prop, and a starting centre. CI/DS +3.7 is the clearest indicator in this match.
Muirfield Village Golf Club · The International
The biggest predicted margin of the round. Sharks 80% at Shark Park, H2H 4-1, facing a Dragons side that is 1-12 with the worst ±/G in the competition.
The most lopsided match of the round. Panthers are 12-1, top of the ladder, return four Origin stars, and have a squad ±/G of +12.8 — the best in the NRL by a wide margin.
The Queensland derby — and a mismatch. Broncos have won 3 straight against the Titans, who are 2-9 and win just 32% at Suncorp.
A genuine top-eight clash in Townsville — and we're tipping the away team. Dolphins are 100% at QCB Stadium (3-0, avg +22), near full strength, and have the Cowboys on short rest without Dearden.
A Lean tip against the grain. The model likes the Roosters — but H2H 4-1, a 38% Roosters record at GIO, and a hangover from last week's 4-18 loss in Melbourne all point one way.
AAMI Park — the most dominant home fortress in the NRL. The Knights have won just 2 of 16 visits. Every structural factor points Melbourne's way.
The International
156-player fieldMuirfield Village Golf Club
72-player fieldBrookvale fortress against a Rabbitohs side returning three Origin players but still missing their best. The numbers point one way.
Colonial Country Club
132-player fieldColonial Country Club · Kitzbühel-Schwarzsee GC
Kitzbühel-Schwarzsee Golf Club
156-player fieldRinkven International · TPC Craig Ranch
Rinkven International Golf Club
156-player fieldTPC Craig Ranch
147-player fieldAronimink Golf Club
156-player fieldAronimink Golf Club
156-player field