Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Mirror match: both 12–10. Played 4 times in 2026. Squiggle 22–7 Collingwood. Lean tip: Collingwood by 5.
SavvyPlays · 26 Aug 2026 · Marvel Stadium · Friday 28 August · 7:40PM AEST
The mirror match. Both teams finished 12–10 with identical home-away splits (7–5, 5–5). They’ve played four times this season: Dogs by 75 (R6), a 93–93 draw (R8), Dogs by 4 (R12), and Pies by 33 (R19). The Squiggle consensus leans Collingwood 22–7 at 54.6%. This is as tight as finals get.
SavvyPlays Tip — Lean
01Collingwood by 5
These teams know each other inside out. Four meetings in 2026 have produced a 75-point Bulldogs win, a draw, a tight 4-point Bulldogs win, and a 33-point Collingwood win. The aggregate is roughly even. In finals, that usually means the team with momentum wins.
The Bulldogs lost their last game by 4 (Melbourne, R24) and drew with Carlton the week before. Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 16 (R24) after drawing with Hawthorn (R23) and beating West Coast by 19 (R22). Neither team is in peak form.
22 of 29 models lean Collingwood at 54.6% with +4.6 margin. We follow the consensus at +5. This is the tightest tip of the finals — the Bulldogs winning would not surprise anyone.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (29 models). All figures verified as of 26 August 2026.
SavvyPlays — AFL Analytics · © 2026