Elimination Final 2 — 2026 AFL FinalsAFL Analytics

Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

Adelaide (16–7) host Bulldogs (13–10) at Adelaide Oval. Squiggle 26–3. Lose = gone. Strong tip: Adelaide by 15.

SavvyPlays · 2 Sep 2026 · Adelaide Oval · Saturday 5 September · 7:35PM AEST

Adelaide finished 6th and host the wildcard-winning Bulldogs. The Crows were the form team of the middle part of the season with a 10-game winning streak. The Bulldogs won a thrilling wildcard final by 3 points over Collingwood. 26 of 29 models tip Adelaide at 65.4%. Lose and your season is over.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Adelaide by 15

Adelaide’s season included a remarkable 10-game winning streak that catapulted them from mid-table to finals contention. At 16–7 and 9–3 at Adelaide Oval, the Crows are strong at home. The Bulldogs at 13–10 won the wildcard final by 3 points but arrive at a hostile venue.

The H2H in 2026 includes Adelaide’s 57-point demolition of the Bulldogs in R14 and a 2-point Adelaide win in R4. The Crows have the matchup advantage. The Bulldogs’ wildcard win showed heart, but Adelaide at Adelaide Oval under lights is a different challenge.

26/29 at 65.4% with +14.4. We’re at +15. Adelaide’s home record and H2H make this a Strong tip. The Bulldogs will need to produce their best to survive.

16–7

Adelaide Season

13–10

Bulldogs Season

9–3

Adelaide Home

Adelaide +57

R14 Result

26/29 Adelaide

Squiggle

65.4%

Confidence

Loser eliminated

Stakes

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (29 models). Fixture and times verified from afl.com.au. All figures verified as of 2 September 2026.