Elimination Final — 2026 AFL FinalsAFL Analytics

Melbourne v Carlton

Melbourne 16–7, 5 straight wins. Carlton 12–10, struggling late. H2H Melb 3–2. Lean tip: Melbourne by 6.

SavvyPlays · 26 Aug 2026 · MCG, Melbourne · Saturday 29 August · 7:35PM AEST

Melbourne are 16–7 and have won five straight heading into finals. Carlton are 12–10 but their late-season form has been poor — losses to Gold Coast, Brisbane, St Kilda, and Fremantle in recent weeks. The H2H is 3–2 Melbourne but Carlton won the R18 meeting by 1. Squiggle leans Melbourne 23–6 at 56.1%.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Melbourne by 6

The form lines couldn’t be more different. Melbourne have won five consecutive games including Port Adelaide by 76 (R23) and the Bulldogs by 31 (R24). They’re 9–2 at the MCG — one of the best home records in the competition.

Carlton at 12–10 made finals but arrive in poor shape. Their late-season slide included losses to Gold Coast (–20), Brisbane (–15), and Fremantle (–42). The R23 draw with the Bulldogs (82–82) was their best recent result.

The one counterargument: Carlton beat Melbourne by 1 in R18 this season. They know how to play against this opponent. But that was a different Carlton — they were on a 5-game winning streak at the time. Now they’re struggling.

23/29 models tip Melbourne at 56.1% with +6.0 margin. We agree at +6. Finals experience and the MCG advantage give Melbourne the edge, but Carlton’s R18 result keeps this as a Lean.

16–7

Melbourne Season

12–10

Carlton Season

9–2

Melbourne Home

Melbourne Streak

Carlton by 1

R18 Result

Melbourne 3–2

H2H Last 5

23/29 Melbourne

Squiggle

56.1%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (29 models). All figures verified as of 26 August 2026.