Preliminary Final 1 -- 2026 AFL FinalsAFL Analytics

Sydney v Fremantle

Sydney 11-1 at SCG, 5 straight wins. Fremantle 20-5 but lost QF by 32. Squiggle 23-6. Strong tip: Sydney by 10.

SavvyPlays · 18 Sep 2026 · SCG, Sydney · Friday 18 September · 7:40PM AEST

The SCG fortress vs the minor premiers. Sydney are 11-1 at home and have won five straight, including a 53-point demolition of Brisbane in the Qualifying Final. Fremantle finished 20-3 in the home-and-away season but have lost 3 of their last 6, including the QF by 32 at Optus. 23 of 29 models tip Sydney at 61.5%. One game from the Grand Final.

SavvyPlays Tip -- Strong

01Sydney by 10

Sydney have been the best team in the 2026 finals. Their 53-point QF demolition of Brisbane was a statement, and their SCG record (11-1) is the best home record of any finalist. They have not lost at home since R7.

Fremantle were the dominant force of the regular season (20-3) but their finals campaign has been rocky. The QF loss to Hawthorn by 32 at Optus shattered the fortress narrative. They recovered to beat Geelong by 14 in the SF, but that required a strong final quarter comeback.

The H2H favours Sydney 3-2 in the last five, including wins by 11 (2025), 3 (2025), and 48 (2024). Fremantle won the R18 meeting this season by 38 at Optus, but that was at their ground. Tonight is at the SCG.

23/29 at 61.5% with +10.1. We back Sydney at the SCG. Their finals form, home record, and H2H all point one way. Fremantle will need to produce their best away performance of the season to reach the Grand Final.

18-5

Sydney Season

20-5

Fremantle Season

11-1

Sydney Home (SCG)

W +53 (QF)

Sydney Finals

L -32, W +14

Fremantle Finals

Sydney 3-2

H2H Last 5

23/29 Sydney

Squiggle

61.5%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (29 models). Fixture and times verified from afl.com.au. All figures verified as of 18 September 2026.