Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Hawthorn beat Freo by 32 in QF. Brisbane 3-2 in H2H incl +67 in R22. MCG. Squiggle 22-7 Hawks. Lean tip: Hawthorn by 5.
SavvyPlays · 18 Sep 2026 · MCG, Melbourne · Saturday 19 September · 5:15PM AEST
The QF heroes vs the defending premiers. Hawthorn stunned Fremantle by 32 at Optus Stadium in the QF. Brisbane lost to Sydney by 53 in their QF but demolished Adelaide by 53 in the SF. Brisbane won the most recent H2H by 67 (R22) but that was at the Gabba. Tonight is the MCG. Squiggle leans Hawthorn 22-7 at 55.9%. A genuine blockbuster for a Grand Final spot.
SavvyPlays Tip -- Lean
01Hawthorn by 5
Hawthorn produced the result of the finals when they beat minor premiers Fremantle by 32 at Optus Stadium in the QF. That win proved this group can deliver on the biggest stage, at the toughest venue. At the MCG (9-3) they should feel even more comfortable.
Brisbane are the most volatile team left in the finals. They lost to Sydney by 53 in the QF, then beat Adelaide by 53 in the SF. In R22, they beat Hawthorn by 67 at the Gabba. The extremes are extraordinary. When Brisbane are on, nobody can stop them. When they are off, they get blown away.
The H2H favours Brisbane 3-2, with wins by 67 (R22 2026), 10 (2025), and 33 (2025). Hawthorn won the previous two (both by 25 in 2024 and 2023). The R22 result is the most recent, but that was at the Gabba. The MCG is neutral to slight Hawthorn advantage.
22/29 at 55.9% with +5.2. This is the tightest Preliminary Final in years. We lean Hawthorn on the MCG advantage and their QF performance, but Brisbane winning would be completely unsurprising. The defending premiers know how to win Grand Final qualifiers.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (29 models). Fixture and times verified from afl.com.au. All figures verified as of 18 September 2026.
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