Qualifying Final 1 — 2026 AFL FinalsAFL Analytics

Fremantle v Hawthorn

Minor premiers Fremantle (20–3) v 4th-placed Hawthorn (15–7). Optus fortress. Squiggle 26–3. Strong tip: Fremantle by 15.

SavvyPlays · 2 Sep 2026 · Optus Stadium, Perth · Thursday 3 September · 8:10PM AEST

The minor premiers host the fourth-placed Hawks. Fremantle finished 20–3 and are unbeaten at Optus Stadium. Hawthorn at 15–7 had a strong season but lost to Brisbane by 67 at the Gabba in R22. 26 of 29 models tip Fremantle at 66.6% confidence. The winner earns a home Preliminary Final and a week off.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Fremantle by 15

Fremantle’s 20–3 season and perfect home record at Optus Stadium make them the most dominant team in the 2026 AFL. They’ve beaten everyone at home. Hawthorn at 15–7 are quality but their away record is their weakness — and the Perth trip is the toughest assignment in the AFL.

The H2H in 2026 favours Fremantle with wins in R15 (+9) and R21 (+27), though Brisbane’s demolition of Hawthorn in R22 (+67) at the Gabba showed the Hawks can be overwhelmed away from home.

26/29 at 66.6% with +14.5 margin. We’re at +15. The stakes are huge: the winner gets a home Prelim Final. Fremantle’s Optus fortress should hold.

20–3

Fremantle Season

15–7

Hawthorn Season

Unbeaten

Fremantle Home

Freo 2–0

H2H 2026

26/29 Freo

Squiggle

66.6%

Confidence

Home Prelim

Stakes

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (29 models). Fixture and times verified from afl.com.au. All figures verified as of 2 September 2026.