Qualifying Final 2 — 2026 AFL FinalsAFL Analytics

Sydney v Brisbane Lions

2nd v 3rd. Sydney 18–5 at the SCG. Brisbane 15–8, defending premiers. H2H Brisbane 3–2. Lean tip: Sydney by 6.

SavvyPlays · 2 Sep 2026 · SCG, Sydney · Saturday 5 September · 3:15PM AEST

Second v third. Sydney finished 18–5 and are dominant at the SCG. Brisbane are 15–8 and the defending premiers with a 3–2 H2H advantage including the 2024 Grand Final (+60). Squiggle leans Sydney 21–8 at 57.4%. The SCG gives Sydney the edge, but Brisbane have finals pedigree. The winner earns a home Preliminary Final.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Sydney by 6

The blockbuster of the finals. Sydney’s SCG fortress vs Brisbane’s premiership pedigree. The H2H favours Brisbane 3–2, including the 2024 Grand Final (+60) and a 9-point win at the Gabba in R16 this season. But Sydney won the R1 meeting by 44 at the SCG.

Brisbane’s form has been volatile: beat Hawthorn by 67 (R22) but lost to Carlton by 76 (R21). When they’re on, they’re devastating. When they’re off, they’re vulnerable. Finals bring out the best in this group.

21/29 at 57.4% with +6.5. This is the tightest match of the finals and could go either way. We lean Sydney on home advantage. The winner gets a home Prelim; the loser drops to a home Semi Final — still alive but harder path.

18–5

Sydney Season

15–8

Brisbane Season

10–1

Sydney Home (SCG)

Brisbane 3–2

H2H Last 5

Brisbane +60

2024 Grand Final

21/29 Sydney

Squiggle

57.4%

Confidence

Home Prelim

Stakes

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (29 models). Fixture and times verified from afl.com.au. All figures verified as of 2 September 2026.