Round 16 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Hawthorn v GWS

Hawthorn 9–4, 6–1 at MCG. GWS 5–8, 1–6 away. Unanimous 29/29. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 20.

SavvyPlays · 25 June 2026 · MCG, Melbourne · Friday 26 June · 7:40PM AEST

Hawthorn are 6–1 at the MCG. GWS are 1–6 away from home and just lost at their own ground to Carlton by 23. All 29 Squiggle models tip the Hawks at 72.9% confidence. This is a clear Strong tip.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Hawthorn by 20

Hawthorn at the MCG are 6–1 this season — one of the strongest home records in the competition. GWS are 1–6 away from home and their fortress narrative crumbled in R15 when Carlton beat them by 23 at Sydney Showground. The Giants are now on a 2-game losing streak.

The H2H favours Hawthorn 3–2 in the last five meetings, including wins by 19 (2025 R25) and 12 (2025 R3). All 29 Squiggle models tip Hawthorn at 72.9% confidence with an average margin of +20.9.

R14 taught us that GWS’s home form doesn’t travel. R15 confirmed it — even their home form isn’t reliable anymore. Hawthorn at the MCG should be comfortable.

9–4

Hawthorn Season

5–8

GWS Season

6–1

Hawthorn Home

1–6

GWS Away

Hawks 3–2

H2H Last 5

29/29 Hawks

Squiggle

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from afl.com.au. All figures verified as of 25 June 2026.