Round 17 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Richmond v Carlton

Richmond 2–13, worst in AFL. Carlton 7–7, 4 straight wins. Unanimous 27/27. Strong tip: Carlton by 20.

SavvyPlays · 2 July 2026 · MCG, Melbourne · Saturday 4 July · 7:35PM AEST

Richmond are 2–13 and 1–7 at home. Carlton are 7–7 on a 4-game winning streak including a 49-point demolition of West Coast. All 27 Squiggle models tip Carlton at 72.4% confidence. Another comfortable away day for the Blues.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Carlton by 20

Richmond’s 2–13 season remains the equal-worst in the competition (alongside Essendon’s 2–14). They’re 1–7 at home and lost to Collingwood by 33 in R16.

Carlton are on a 4-game streak: Geelong +4, Essendon +5, GWS +23, West Coast +49. The quality of opposition has been mixed but the trajectory is upward. The H2H favours Carlton 3–2 in the last five.

Unanimous consensus: 27/27 Carlton at 72.4% with +20.4 margin. We agree at +20.

2–13

Richmond Season

7–7

Carlton Season

1–7

Richmond Home

Carlton Streak

27/27 Carlton

Squiggle

72.4%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from afl.com.au/zerohanger.com. All figures verified as of 2 July 2026.