Round 18 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Carlton v Hawthorn

Carlton 5-game streak, 4–1 in H2H. Hawthorn 11–4. Squiggle 15–12. Lean tip: Carlton by 4.

SavvyPlays · 9 July 2026 · MCG, Melbourne · Saturday 11 July · 7:35PM AEST

Carlton are on a 5-game winning streak and own the H2H 4–1 in the last five meetings. Hawthorn are 11–4 but lost to Melbourne by 5 last round. The Squiggle split is 15–12 for Carlton at 52.2%. Two quality sides in a blockbuster Saturday night fixture.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Carlton by 4

Carlton’s 5-game streak is the longest active winning run in the competition after Fremantle. Wins over Geelong (+4), Essendon (+5), GWS (+23), West Coast (+49), and Richmond (+13) show improving form, though the quality of opposition has been mixed.

Hawthorn at 11–4 are the better team on season record, but they lost to Melbourne by 5 last round and their away record (4–3) shows they’re beatable on the road. The H2H is decisive: Carlton have won four of the last five meetings.

Squiggle is split 15–12 at 52.2% with a +3.0 margin. We’re at +4, weighting the H2H dominance slightly. This is a genuine Lean — Hawthorn’s overall quality means an upset is very possible.

8–7

Carlton Season

11–4

Hawthorn Season

Carlton Streak

Carlton 4–1

H2H Last 5

15/27 Carlton

Squiggle

52.2%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from zerohanger.com. All figures verified as of 9 July 2026.