Adelaide v Collingwood
Adelaide 13–5, 6 straight wins, 8–2 at home. Collingwood 7–10, 3–5 away. Strong tip: Adelaide by 12.
SavvyPlays · 23 July 2026 · Adelaide Oval · Thursday 23 July · 7:30PM AEST
Adelaide have won six straight and are 13–5 with an 8–2 home record. Collingwood are 7–10 and 3–5 away. The H2H favours Collingwood 4–1 historically, but Adelaide’s current form overrides it. 24 of 27 Squiggle models tip the Crows at 63.3% confidence.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Adelaide by 12
Adelaide’s six-game winning streak is the second-longest active run in the AFL behind Fremantle. They’ve beaten Geelong, the Bulldogs by 57, Melbourne by 17, Port Adelaide by 24, West Coast by 5, and Sydney by 16. At 13–5 with an 8–2 home record, the Crows are genuine premiership contenders.
Collingwood’s H2H advantage (4–1 in the last five) is the one concern, but those wins came in a different era of form. Adelaide’s current trajectory is impossible to ignore. The Pies are 7–10 and 3–5 away.
24 of 27 Squiggle models tip Adelaide at 63.3% with +11.0 margin. We’re at +12. Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in this form should be too strong.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from zerohanger.com. All figures verified as of 23 July 2026.
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