Round 21 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Carlton v Brisbane Lions

Carlton 4–1 in H2H. Brisbane 11–7. Both off losses. Squiggle split 15–12. Lean tip: Carlton by 4.

SavvyPlays · 30 July 2026 · Marvel Stadium · Saturday 1 August · 7:40PM AEST

Carlton own this matchup 4–1 in the last five H2H, but Brisbane at 11–7 are the better team on season record. Carlton are coming off a 20-point loss to Gold Coast. Brisbane lost to Port Adelaide by 28. Both teams are wounded. Squiggle leans Brisbane 15–12 but we back the H2H and home advantage.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Carlton by 4

This is a genuine coin flip. Brisbane at 11–7 have the better season record, but Carlton’s H2H dominance (4–1, including wins by 71 and 65 in recent seasons) is one of the most lopsided in the AFL.

Both teams are coming off losses: Carlton to Gold Coast (–20), Brisbane to Port Adelaide (–28 at the Gabba). Neither will have confidence. The models lean Brisbane 15–12 at 53.5% with +3.8 margin.

We’re going against the slight model lean and backing Carlton at home on the strength of the H2H (4–1) and venue. This is our most contrarian tip of the round — a genuine Lean either way.

9–9

Carlton Season

11–7

Brisbane Season

Carlton 4–1

H2H Last 5

5–5

Carlton Home

15/27 Brisbane

Squiggle

53.5%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from footyalmanac.com.au. All figures verified as of 30 July 2026.