Round 21 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Hawthorn v North Melbourne

Hawthorn 14–4, 9–1 at home. North 8–11, 4 straight losses, 2–7 away. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 15.

SavvyPlays · 30 July 2026 · UTAS Stadium, Launceston · Saturday 1 August · 1:35PM AEST

Hawthorn are 14–4 and 9–1 at home — one of the best home records in the AFL. North Melbourne are 8–11 and on a 4-game losing streak with a 2–7 away record. 24 of 27 models tip Hawthorn at 65.6%.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Hawthorn by 15

Hawthorn’s 14–4 record and 9–1 home mark are among the best in the competition. They beat Essendon by 34 last round (R20). North Melbourne are 8–11 and have lost four straight: Port Adelaide (–21), Collingwood (–4), Melbourne (–16), and St Kilda (–32).

The H2H slightly favours North 3–2 but that’s against the run of current form. North’s 2–7 away record is dire. 24/27 models tip Hawthorn at 65.6% with +14.5. We’re at +15.

14–4
Hawthorn Season
8–11
North Season
9–1
Hawthorn Home
2–7
North Away
4L
North Streak
24/27 Hawks
Squiggle

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from footyalmanac.com.au. All figures verified as of 30 July 2026.

SavvyPlays — AFL Analytics · © 2026