Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Squiggle 24–7 Brisbane despite Hawthorn’s form. Gabba factor tips it. H2H Brisbane 3–2. Lean tip: Brisbane by 5.
SavvyPlays · 6 Aug 2026 · Gabba, Brisbane · Friday 7 August · 7:40PM AEST
Hawthorn are 15–5 with the best current form in the AFL (won last 3 by 70, 34, 38). But 24 of 31 Squiggle models tip Brisbane at the Gabba. The defending premiers at home, with a 3–2 H2H advantage, get the nod from the models despite their recent wobble. This is a genuine blockbuster.
SavvyPlays Tip — Lean
01Brisbane Lions by 5
Our initial instinct was Hawthorn based on their extraordinary form (won last 3 by avg +47). But 24 of 31 Squiggle models disagree, tipping Brisbane at 55.9% confidence with a +5.0 margin. The Gabba factor and Brisbane’s defending premiership pedigree are what the models are weighing.
Brisbane at 12–8 have lost two of their last three, including to Port Adelaide by 28 at the Gabba. But the models still back them at home against a Hawthorn side that’s 5–3 away. The H2H favours Brisbane 3–2.
We follow the model consensus — Brisbane at home. But this is the tightest Lean of the round. Hawthorn’s form is undeniable.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (31 models). Kickoff times verified from footyalmanac.com.au. All figures verified as of 6 August 2026.
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